Friday, January 04, 2008
There have been a lot of articles in the MSM and on the Internet in recent weeks about the coming breakup of the so-called Reagan Coalition -- social conservatives; national security conservatives; economic conservatives -- here and here and hereand here. Like my thoughtful brothers and sisters in the media I enjoy promoting grand decline-and-fall theories explaining current political developments by ascribing them to historical struggles involving clashing intellectual-political forces (or the other side of the coin: the formation of coalitions between them). But I'm not sure whether that that is happening right now with regard to the Reagan Coalition. It's true that the glue of the Cold War that held it together melted after the Soviet Union and Communism collapsed. But the post-9/11 effort to replace the Soviet/Communism threat with that of so-called Islamo-Fascism has overall been quite successful. Yes, some of of the "realists" and a few libertarians and paleos have opposed it, including yours truly. But the majority of Republicans and conservatives support Bush's foreign policy, including the War in Iraq. Most of the opposition to the war is concentrated among the liberals and the Democrats. At the same time, it's obvious that the majority of the the Republicans and conservatives, with the exception of the Wall Street Journal editorial page, and some libertarians and neo-conservatives, have become more negative over the issue of immigration, especially the illegal part. In short, the Democrats/liberals have become the anti-war faction. But that's not going to make a difference since their leaders in the White House, Congress and elsewhere will continue to be committed to U.S. intervention in the Middle East. And the Republicans/conservatives have become the Lou Dobbs faction on immigration. But again that's not going to make any differece, since their leaders in Congress and elsewhere aren't going to do anything about it. Yes, there are some powerful anti-globalization elements in both parties/movements, and the social-conservatives still exert some influence among conservatives. But the elites in both parties are pro-globalization while the Republican lawmakers and presidents will cotinue to throw a few bones here and there to the social-conservatives. So... don't expect any new political realignments on the right or the left or any major challenges to the status-quo aytime soon: U.S. troops will continue to be in Iraq for many more years; illegal immigrants will continue to come; and notwithstanding some protectionism, the Davos Crowd will continue to be in charge in Washington. Major change will come only if and when Americans would face a huge economic crisis and/or if the draft would be reinstated. And I hope I'm wrong about this.