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Silver lining in an Iran-Israel war?

Business Times - 10 Feb 2012


Silver lining in an Iran-Israel war?

A short-term military conflict could well turn out to be the catalyst for long-term stability, cooperation and peace

By LEON HADAR
WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT

NOTWITHSTANDING the never-ending stream of all those based-on-reliable-intelligence-sources analyses, it is doubtful whether these same analysts would be willing to bet whatever is left of their 401K retirement accounts on their predictions that Israel will - or will not - attack Iranian nuclear sites this year.

And while research institutions have conducted interesting exercises to try to figure out the military, diplomatic and economic repercussions of a confrontation between Israel and Iran, the dictum that no military plan survives the contact with the enemy applies also here - in addition to the unintended consequences, blowbacks and the proverbial 'black swans' that are bound to show up even in the unlikely scenario under which Israel achieves all or most of…