Global Paradigms

When it comes to espionage thrillers, I prefer George Smiley over James Bond, but I'm still a fan of the FOX 24 hit series which kicked off its fifth season this week. And Kiefer Sutherland is back as Jack Bauer, a crack but controversial US federal agent working for something called CTU (Counter-Terrorism Unit) which for some reason is based in L.A. Over the last four years — one day at a time, Agent Bauer has saved humanity (located mostly on the West Coast) from Serbian and Middle Eastern terrorists as well as drug dealers and nasty guys who usually speak in bad British or German accents. I know. I know. He also beats confessions out of suspects, shooting them in their kneecaps, shocking them, breaking fingers, one by one, without institing on getting in advance the legal protection from the government, emphasizing that he is willing to be punished if and when his bosses conclude that there wasn't any compelling reason for Bauer's brutality, say, a nuclear bomb ticking...

The Age Of W Is Not Over Americans overwhelmingly lack confidence that Iraq will have a stable government in place within the next year, and more than half say that the war has not been worth its cost, according to a recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll . Fewer than one in five, or about 19 percent, of the 1,003 adults quizzed said they believe Iraqis can assemble a sound, democratic government in the next 12 months that is able to maintain order without the assistance of U.S. troops. Seventy-five percent said they didn't believe that would happen. The poll also suggested that most Americans remain skeptical about the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, with 52 percent telling pollsters it wasn't worth going to war. However, this is a marked decrease from a poll taken fewer than two months ago, indicating that 60 percent of Americans didn't think the war was worth the cost. So...is it over? In fact, Congressman Jack Murtha is predicting that "Vast majority of US troops to leave ...

All things considered...I'd rather have "Mossi" The Eurasia Group warned this week that the nuclear stand-off with Iran was the "greatest source of political risk in 2006" and could lead to military strikes by the U.S. and/or Israel in early 2007. Readers of my column are aware that I put my own credibility as a political analyst on the line and made the same prediction this week,that "the news this year will be dominated by the growing confrontation between Washington and Tehran" (and to think that the guys in this respected international consulting group probably spent several weeks and received a lot of bucks to come up with this forecast; I won't reveal to you how much I get paid for my column...). In fact, there was a very interesting op-ed piece in Thursday's New York Times in which the two authors make very similar arguments to the ones I raised in my column, especially with regard to the perception by the Iranian leaders that the B...

"He was dividing God's land, and I would say, 'Woe unto any prime minister of Israel who takes a similar course to appease the [European Union], the United Nations or the United States of America,'" "God says, 'This land belongs to me, and you'd better leave it alone.'" Last week I called on the Israeli government to nix the Biblical "theme park" Pat Robertson was planning to build in Israel. And what do you know... The media is reporting today that Pat would have to find somewhere else to play David and Bat-Sheba. Apparenly, "God says, "There's no theme park for Pat." (Since only my mom and personal trainer read this blog, I assume the Israeli got the idea from someone else...). But apparently there are those who are... how should I put it?...More Catholic than the Israeli Pope when it comes to this Christian Evangelist? A friend emailed such stuff that he dug out from the bottom of the web, a call to "lay ...

Good for Israel? Late last year I published a analysis in the contrarian American Conservative titled, Bad For You Too? How the Iraq War disappointed Israel , in which I challenged the notion (axiom?) that the neoconservative agenda of ousting Saddam Hussein and spreading "democracy" in the Middle East advanced long-term Israeli interests. That is certainly not the conclusion that you would draw after skimming through analyses issued by Israeli experts since the collapse of Saddam’s statue in downtown Baghdad and which suggest that America has been fighting the right war (against terrorism) in the wrong place (Iraq). “The war in Iraq did not damage international terror groups but instead distracted the United States from confronting other hotbeds of Islamic militancy and actually ‘created momentum’ for many terrorists,” the Associated Press recently reported of a study conducted by “a top Israeli security think tank.” The Jaffe Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv Unive...

An "Habitual Liar" Jim Henley, a libetarian soulmate who tried for quite a while persuade me to launch a blog and who runs the popular Unqualified offerings referred to the "unsentimental" comments that have been made by Diana Moon on her Letter from Gotham and by your humble servant about Sharon. As a libertarian, Jim can understand why I'm not very sentimental about politicians in general. I only cry when I lose a close family member or friend and sometimes I do get depressed when certain politicans come to power. I never shed a tear about individuals who steal our money aka tax us and who send us to get killed in wars. Sorry. However, Jonathan Edelstein on The Head Heeb in a somewhat "kvetchy" piece of writing admits that "I find it difficult to write about [Sharon's medical condition], as if I were facing the loss of a family member." Hope you'll get over it. He also gives this long spiel about how he was once anti-Sharon and p...

Fast Times at Jeddah High: Yaallaah...Y'all...They're beheading our Math teacher and there is free Hummus Allah, I Prayed for a Driver's License and Instead I got this Alter Kaker* Arab Sheik on Viagra: Next Time I'll call Santa *see Yiddish dictionary King Abdullah and his Cowboy Buddy: Returning to Brokeback Mountain ("But I won't leave Laura!") You'll probably call me a wonk (like in "policy wonk," but I have to reveal to you that I'm one of those guys who gets off reading The Economist magazine's "surveys" the ones it issues from time to time, like 24 pages about "The Future of the Albanian Car Industry" or 32 pages about "Ghana's High-Tech Revolution." So I was very excited when I got in the mail my new issue of The Economist with a special survey about "Saudi Arabia: A Long Walk" (12 pages). The survey is quite interesting, very contrarian and running very much against the post-9/1...

Steven Clemons, one of Washington's leading intellectual entrepreneurs, is following the reactions to Pat Robertson's suggestions that God was punishing Sharon for dividing the land of Israel, including the White House's reaction on his popular blog, The Washington Note . I am still hoping for a more forceful responses from American-Jewish figures who at one time or another went ballistic when, say, Jesse Jackson or Pat Buchanan made comments that were alleged to be anti-Israeli or anti-semitic. I don't recall either of the two expressing the view that Israel's Prime Minister deserved to die a slow and horrible death. And my online pal Diana Moon has some provocative stuff on Sharon on her great blog Letter from Gotham I think she makes excellent points about the need to de-romanticize Sharon. Here is what I argued in an old piece "'Courageous' Sharon 'Disengages' From Gaza" in "Chronicles" magazine You’ve probably heard the one ...

" Ich bin ein Jewish Settler " When I heard the news about Sharon I told a friend to expect one of the crazy Jewish settlers to proclaim that the Israeli PM was punished by God for the withdrawal from Gaza. Well, I was wrong. Instead, it was the most enthusiastic American supporter of the Greater Israel project, "Television evangelist" Pat Robertson who suggested on Thursday that Israeli Sharon's stroke was "divine retribution" for the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, which Robertson opposed. "He was dividing God's land, and I would say, 'Woe unto any prime minister of Israel who takes a similar course to appease the [European Union], the United Nations or the United States of America,'" Robertson told viewers of his long-running television show, "The 700 Club." "God says, 'This land belongs to me, and you'd better leave it alone,'" he said. More about Nutty Pat here There has been some criticism by ...

Rabin's wife accused "Bibi" of inciting against her husband "Arik" Sharon was struggling for his life, and the Likudniks/neocons were already celebrating. Michael Oren, an author of an over-rated book on the 1967 War and a scholar with a creepy neocon think tank in Jerusalem, made it clear, in an interview with the New York Times that this was great, great news for his political man, Binyamin "Bibi" Netanyahu Many Israelis followed Sharon away from Likud into Kadima because they believed he represented the best guarantee for Israel's security in the near future," said Michael B. Oren, an Israeli historian. "In his absence, they are likely to fall back on the next likeliest guarantee, Bibi Netanyahu." Mr. Netanyahu has also worked to purge Likud "of some of its more unsavory figures and restored some of its tainted image," Mr. Oren said. Mr. Netanyahu is also given high marks for his stewardship of the Finance Ministry befo...

Iraqi PM Jaafari and Iranian VVP Aref: A Marriage made in Teheran (through U.S. matchmaking) My recent analysis of U.S.-Iran tensions: January 4, 2006 US Headed for Confrontation With Iran But probably not all-out war by Leon Hadar I've been embarrassed a few times in the past with my predictions (for example, that it was going to be U.S. President John Kerry in 2004), but I've also been right on a few occasions (for example, my book, Quagmire: America in the Middle East, was published in 1992). So let me put my credibility as a political analyst on the line again and make another forecast: The news this year will be dominated by the growing confrontation between Washington and Tehran (if that doesn't happen, well, I promise not to remind you about that early next year). Notice that I'm hedging my bets here. I refer to "confrontation," as in diplomatic and military confrontation, and not to war, as in the war with Iraq. I don't think that the United Stat...

(pic via www.gabeanderson.com) One more proof that U.S. President George W. Bush and Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad share common values is the news story in the Christian Science Monitor about Waiting for the Repture in Iran For those who believe, the devotion is real. Tears stream down the cheeks of 2,000 men ripe for the return of the Mahdi, the 12th Imam they expect will soon emerge to bring justice and peace to a corrupt world. Eyes stare upward and arms open wide to receive God's promised salvation. The storyteller's lyrical song speaks of tragedy on the path to salvation, prompting cries of anguish and joy. As at a Christian revivalist meeting that promises healing and redemption, many weep as they pray for the Shiite Muslim version of the second coming of the Messiah. "Sometimes I feel they don't need me," says Mahdi Salashur, the religious storyteller, after leading congregants on an emotional late-night journey. "They are wired to God in t...

(pic from www.globalsecurity.org) My favorite blog Stop The Spirit Of Zossen has some great stuff about the coming U.S. confrontation with Iran which, I think, will be the Big Story of 2006. I'll be posting more items soon, including a longer piece by your truly on the topic. But do fasten your seat belts, the guys who brought you the Shock and Ouch in Mesopotamia promise that it's all going to be very exciting, making the Iraq war look like a picnic on the shore of the Euphrates.

Have a Nice Empire in 2006! British Philosopher John Gray has a great piece on the future in the American Empire in the new issue of the New York of Books which is becoming once again one of my favorite magazines. He reviews the news books by Robert Kaplan and Michael Mandelbaum and demolishes both the arguments in favor of Empire (Kaplan) and "Empire-lite" (Mandelbaum). Gray contends that unlike the British, the Americans are not ready and don't have the resources and patience to build an empire. And he calls on the U.S. to work with other great powers to establish global stability. The piece is long but worth reading. And BTW, I raise similar points in my new book, "Sandstorm: Policy Failure in the Middle East" (see links). Also I post here one of my old commentaries which deals with the problems facing the American Empire. US Ambitions Need Reality Check by Leon Hadar by Leon Hadar The American invasion of Afghanistan and Iran has ignited hopes among Washin...