Global Paradigms

Please read my U.S. Cannot Force Regime Change in Pakistan . Also for those who are so, so surprised at what's happening there, check-out my policy paper Pakistan in America's War against Terrorism: Strategic Ally or Unreliable Client? (from 2002)and the two commentaries The Real War on Terrorism Is in Pakistan, Not Iraq (2003) and If Iraq, Iran, and North Korea Are the "Axis of Evil," Why Is Pakistan an Ally? (from before the Iraq War), as well as my op-ed in the Los Angeles Times Outsourcing the Hunt for Bin Laden.

Business Times - 09 Nov 2007 When fake news and comedy trump reality By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT DISCUSS political events with a 20-something American these days and you would probably be surprised to learn that he or she gets much of his or her news on politics, including the presidential race, from The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and The Colbert Report, the two popular shows on Comedy Central cable television network. This is where comedians Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, using formats typical of mainstream journalism ('And now we turn to our senior child molestation correspondent . . .') play talk show hosts who anchor mock newscasts and report fake news. 'A lot of television viewers - more, quite frankly, than I'm comfortable with - get their news from the Comedy Channel on a programme called The Daily Show,' prominent - and real - news reporter and anchor Ted Koppel told The Washington Post two years ago. Indeed, some observers have even compared t...

Business Times - 13 Nov 2007 US economy: entering the fear zone The credit crunch and the weak dollar could force Americans to finally start to pay back the money they borrowed By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT AS the US dollar reached an all-time low against the euro and oil prices rose close to US$100 a barrel and the housing market experienced one of the steepest downturns in two decades, the last thing that Congress and Wall Street needed was to have US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke tell them that they should expect a 'sluggish' US economic growth in the near future. At the same time, he hinted that the US central bank had no concrete plans to cut interest rates anytime soon. Yes, the economy was slowing down and that there wasn't much he could do about it. You'll just have to get used to it. But that was exactly what Mr Bernanke did last Thursday during his much anticipated testimony before a joint economic committee on Capitol Hill. It is quite possib...

Bye, bye and check-out my Innocent Abroad: Karen Hughes’s mission impossible. And... the new issue of the American Conservative carries my Osama's Man in America -- His job: keep the Viagra and the gossip flowing while praying for a Giuliani victory. It's not online yet, but if you click on the pics below you could (I hope) read it:

Business Times - 02 Nov 2007 Bernanke playing into the hands of Bush & Co By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT INVESTORS on Wall Street were expecting that when the policymaking committee of the US Federal Reserve met on Wednesday, its members would agree to cut the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.5 per cent. And surprise, surprise! That's exactly what happened, which is the good news, at least as far as short-term effects are concerned - and perhaps also the bad news, if one considers the long-term repercussions of the latest move by the US central bank. The Fed had cut the federal funds rate (the rate at which banks lend to each other) by half a percentage point at its previous meeting of the Open Market Committee on Sept 18, responding then - as it did this week - to the pressures coming from the financial markets. September's decision had clearly helped to calm the then anxious credit markets. But then, the credit markets, facing more bad financ...

There is a certain nostalgia in Washington these days for a creative US economic leadership, like back in the 1990s By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT MANY American magazines tend to feature on their covers pictures of Britney Spears, Paris Hilton and other notorious public figures, so that it may be difficult to recall that there was a time when the US media treated economists like John Maynard Keynes, John Kenneth Galbraith and Milton Friedman like celebrities, if not as national superstars. On Feb 15, 1999, following the 1997 East Asian Financial Crisis and the 1998 Long Term Capital Management collapse/Russia/Brazil financial crisis, Time magazine's cover carried a group photo of then US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and his deputy, Lawrence Summers, and proclaimed the three to be the chairman and two co-chairmen of the 'Committee to Save the World'. 'Economists as heroes?' asked the magazine. 'It sounds sill...

Ang Lee's award-winning, very expensive and very-long Lust, Caution (158 minutes) reminded me very much of Paul Verhoeven's award-winning, very expensive and very-long Black Book (145 minutes). Both films are historical dramas that take place against the backdrop of war, involving political intrigue, espionage, deception and a lot of violence, torture and sex. Lee's film is set in World War II Shanghai during Japanese occupation while Verhoeven's is set in World War II Holland during the German occupation. "Lust, Caution" is about a young Chinese woman, played by the beautiful and very talented Tang Wei who is a member of an anti-Japanese underground and whose task is to seduce a member of the Japanese collaborationist government, played by the great actor, Tony Leung as part of a scheme to assassinate him while "The Black Book" is about a Dutch-Jewish woman played by Carice van Houten who is a member of an anti-German underground and whose task ...

Business Times - 18 Oct 2007 US happy with falling value of the greenback By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT NOTWITHSTANDING the rhetoric coming out of the Bush Administration about Washington's steadfast commitment to a 'strong' US currency, it is not a secret that most of this city's policymakers seem to share the view that the falling dollar is good news and that it should stay that way for quite a while. Hence, a friend and long-time critic of the Bush Administration admitted during a recent conversation that 'one of few things that the Bush team did right was not to talk it up as much as the Clinton Administration did'. Many Americans who associate a strong US economy with a strong US dollar 'just don't get it', he explained. 'Strangely, while it is common knowledge in China, Japan, Malaysia, Argentina, and many other countries that an overvalued currency is a curse, in the US this is much less understood, even among opponents of current...

Business Times - 16 Oct 2007 A gulf divides political elite and the US public Reactions to US policy on global issues shows up a division in govt and public attitudes By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT IF you have been monitoring the latest opinion polls that measure the American public's shifting attitudes on the Iraq War, international trade and other global policy issues, you might assume that the Bush Administration and the Democratic-controlled Congress would be now in the process of adopting policies and taking steps aimed at the withdrawal of American troops from Mesopotamia and pulling the US out of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). After all, the American politicians and the voters who elect them pride themselves as being part of the most open and representative democratic system that the world has ever known (and they even try to impose their political system on other countries through peaceful measures, and if necessary, by force). So if the opinion po...

Business Times - 11 Oct 2007 Towards the Clinton restoration? It's no longer a question of if Hillary will become president but who will make up her cabinet By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT THE first US presidential primaries will take place in three months and the American voters will cast their votes for their next president on Nov 8 next year. But when it comes to Washington's political movers and shakers - the lawmakers, the bureaucrats, the lobbyists, the pollsters, the campaign managers, the reporters, the pundits - it seems that the choice has already been made. Indeed, it's very difficult to find anyone in the US capital who would challenge what has become the conventional wisdom of the political class: the next president of the United States will be the Democratic senator from New York and the ex-first lady. Drop into one of the cocktail parties or diplomatic receptions in this city and you won't be surprised to find out that those who belong to the Ins...

October 3, 2007 The Costs of Isolating Myanmar by Leon Hadar President George W. Bush and First Lady Laura Bush, joined by Republican and Democratic lawmakers, the leading presidential candidates, human right activists, and Christian evangelists, have been condemning the violent crackdown on protesters led by Buddhist monks in Myanmar. While they have called for taking more steps to diplomatically isolate the military regime there and impose more economic sanctions on it, they seem to have failed to recognize that one of the major reasons for the U.S.' inability to affect change in that embattled country has been the continuing American efforts to, well, diplomatically isolate the military regime of Myanmar and impose more economic sanctions on it. ( read more ) Also read my U.S. Sanctions Against Burma: A Failure on All Fronts

( read this )

I highly recommend In the Valley of Elah with Tommy Lee Jones and Eastern Promises with with Viggo Mortensen . I don't have doubt that the the two actors will be nominated for Oscars. David Denby's review of "In the Valley of Elah" in the New Yorker makes some good points. I'll add that this is the most powerful account of the Iraq War’s devastating impact on this country and the way it forces a genuine American patriot into a hellish introduction into the Reality Based Community. "Eastern Promised" (read review in the Rolling Stones) is an entertaining thriller that uses as a backdrop of gloomy London, the Russian Mafia, sex trafficking, drugs the preparation of Borscht soup. These are two truly contemporary films. They wouldn't have been made in the twentieth century.

I had the pleasure to attend and even to address the recent meeting in Washington, DC, of the John Randolph Club(JRC) which was organized by the Rockford Institute which publishes Chronicles magazine. JRC, Rockford and Chronicles are all part of what is known as the Paleoconservative movement. The panel that I shared with with an old friend, Serge Trifkovic focused on the Iraq War and issues related to U.S. foreign policy and the neocon imperial project in the Middle East. It was an intellectual delight to exchange views with so many highly-educated men and women who have contrarian views on domestic and foreign policy issues. Some of the other speakers included Thomas Fleming, Peter Brimelow, Justin Raimondo, and Taki. I just finised reading Fleming's The Morality of Everyday Life: Rediscovering an Ancient Alternative to the Liberal Tradition which is a fantastic read and a great introduction to paleoconservative ideas. Fleming challenges the philosophical foundation...

some of my recent thoughts on the subject: Business Times - 28 Sep 2007 US may have to bid farewell to good times The house of cards is falling amid soaring oil prices, diving home sector and credit crunch IT will be recalled as a Golden Economic Age, the Greenspan Era, or the Goldilocks Economy - but one thing is clear: The good days of doing-away-with-the-business-cycle and spending-like-there-is-no-tomorrow are probably over as far as the US economy is concerned. Indeed, it is becoming obvious that Americans will have to say 'bye, bye' to an age when consumers could take out huge mortgage loans to pay for new homes and spend the weekends shopping for the latest plasma televisions - made in China - as they maxed out on their credit cards. The era when financial institutions could juggle new and increasingly complex ('exotic') financial products that made it possible to extend more credit to the consumers and businesses, including packages of mortgages to those who ha...

September 24, 2007 Issue Copyright © 2007 The American Conservative A Separate Peace Leaving the country to save it by Leon Hadar Casablanca, Sept. 17, 2010—The international conference that opened in this beautiful city yesterday is expected to put some final touches on a United Nations-sponsored accord on the future of the new state being set up in Mesopo-tamia, the Confederation of Iraq and Kurdistan (CFIK). The agreement was reached in early July, following months of negotiations in Bern, Switzerland, where the Arab League, Iran, and Turkey, together with representatives of the main ethnic and religious groups in Iraq that have been fighting over control of the country, accepted the formula proposed by the two lead mediators, U.S. Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke and French Foreign Secretary Bernard Kouchner. The agreement calls for the division of the former Iraq into two political entities—the Islamic Republic of Iraq (IRI) and the Kurdish Republic (KR)—that are delineated by...

As a graduate of Columbia University (School of Journalism: School of International Affairs: Middle East Institute) and a recpient of many emails re Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's "visit" to the campus. I'm still trying to figure out what was that all about: Why did the university invite him (to insult him publicly?) and why did he accept the invitation (to get insulted publicly?). Here is my short take: I'm interested more in learning about Iran's policies as opposed to statements made by its leaders (check-out Anwar Sadat's views on Jews and Israel before 1977 or for that matter Mao's views on America). Abd btw, between 30,000 to 40,000 Jews live in Iran. How many Jews live in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia? and this is interesting: Iran Holocaust Show Sympathetic to Jews. Bottom Line: an Israeli and/or American strike against Iran will ensure that Iran -- its government and its people will turn against Israel. And on a related topic. ...

The Independent Institute hosted an luncheaon-event on Friday titled Troop Withdrawal: Looking Beyond Iraq in which I spoke about my new policy analysis A Diplomatic Road to Damascus: The Benefits of U.S. Engagement with Syria which has been published by the institute. Ivan Eland who deals with foreign policy in the Independent Institute and David Henderson from the Hoover Institution also spoke on Iraq and America's non-dependency on Mideast oil. And you can read my Reporter-at-Large: Time to Talk to Syria? about the secret negotiations between Israel and Syria on the National Interest Online . A summary of my Independent Institute's policy analysis has been posted on the globalist.com under American Realism and Engaging Syria. Update: Alon Liel, the former Israeli diplomat involved in the secret negotiaitons with Syria (see my National Interest piece) provides an interesting explanation for the "mysterious" Israeli strike into Syria here. : US Secretary of St...

Yep. Sorry to say that. But as a member of the Reality-based community I need -- and you need -- to face reality. Here are some of the points I raised in a recent column: In the aftermath of a very hectic week in Washington which focused on US policy in Iraq, there is a growing recognition among lawmakers and pundits that US President George W Bush is going to win the political and legislative war at home over the military war in Iraq. The United States is going to 'stay the course' in Iraq at least until President Bush leaves office in 16 months. The decision on what to do about US military presence in that country will have to be made by the next occupant of the White House - long after Mr Bush concludes his two terms in office. Hence, despite continuing opposition by a large majority of the American people to President Bush's Iraq policy and their support for setting a timeline for withdrawal from that country, the Democratic leaders who control both the Senate and the H...

Some of my recent analyses of the Fed and the U.S. economy: Business Times - 20 Sep 2007 Spectre of 'Bernanke Put' looms Fed's half-point cut in federal funds rate also expected to produce new problems By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT CRITICS of Alan Greenspan have depicted what was seen as an attempt by former chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, Alan Greenspan, to ensure liquidity in the capital markets by lowering interest rates as the 'Greenspan put'. According to this argument, during the Greenspan term in the Fed, investors operated under the expectations that disorder in the capital markets would make it more likely than not that the US central bank would lower interest rates. Hence, this 'Greenspan put' may have created incentives for some investors out to engage in risky and irresponsible behaviour since they expected that lower interest rates would serve to bail them out. Their risky behaviour, in turn, would end up igniting more disrupt...