Global Paradigms

Business Times - 25 May 2010 Changing narrative on midterm polls Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a clear advantage in the November election, at least for now By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT US CONGRESSIONAL and gubernatorial elections that take place at the end of the second year of a presidential term - midterm election - serve as a referendum on the performance of the sitting president and the incumbent political party. History suggests that voters tend to 'punish' the party of the president during this election that takes place on Nov 2. Indeed, in the last 17 midterm elections, the president's party has lost an average of 28 seats in the House of Representatives, and an average four seats in the Senate. The conventional wisdom in Washington has been that the coming midterm election - for 36 of the 100 seats in the Senate, for all the 435 seats in the House and for 37 gubernatorial races - will prove to be a major electoral blow to President Barack ...

Please read my new Multipolarism sans the EU Pole? The Geopolitics of Europe's Economic Mess and the rest of my commetaties on The Huffington Post.

Business Times - 13 May 2010 Now it's Europe's turn, but there's no joy in the US By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT IN THE aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing meltdown on Wall Street, some Europeans took a certain pleasure over the economic mess across the Atlantic. French commentators suggested that the US financial crisis highlighted once again the structural flaws and the moral failings of the Anglo-Saxon economic system (as opposed to the more statist version practised in France). The Germans contrasted their more conservative social market model with the free market principles guiding policymakers in Washington. And the European Union's technocrats were more than willing to dispense constructive advice to their colleagues in Washington while expressing initial (and very brief) sense of confidence that the growing troubles facing the US economy were not going to spill over into Europe. In fact, some analysts predicted that the US econom...

Business Times - 11 May 2010 Possible payoff from the Gulf Coast oil spill? Obama could press for an energy bill and its cap-and-trade provisions more strongly now By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT FIVE years ago when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, then president George W Bush was criticised for waiting much too long to act. The Bush administration had failed to provide the kind of decisive leadership required for dealing effectively with an emergency, said Democratic lawmakers and media commentators. That negative assessment was magnified by media images of Mr Bush presenting a birthday cake to Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona in Phoenix on exactly the same day the hurricane hit. Indeed, Mr Bush's handling of the 2005 disaster - which resulted in the death of 1,800 people and caused close to US$100 billion in damage - turned out to be the lowest point in the history of his administration. The debacle of Katrina helped erode much of the remaining support for Mr Bu...

Business Times - 05 May 2010 Arizona law fuels immigration debate While there's broad support for new law, other states are unlikely to follow Arizona before November's midterm polls By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT IT IS starting to sound like a cliche. But it is also true. A politically polarising debate dominates the United States and, by extension, Washington these days. Ranging from the major policy issues of the day - federal deficit, healthcare reform, financial regulations and climate change - to the silly, if not infantile - President Barack Obama's birth certificate or Sarah Palin's latest Twitter comments - Americans seem to be split between two hostile camps - Democrats vs Republicans; Liberals vs Conservatives; Left vs Right; Blue States vs Red States. So it was interesting that after the state of Arizona had passed a new and very tough immigration law which grants new powers to police to stop and detain suspected illegal immigrants, the animated and ...

Business Times - 29 Apr 2010 'Clash of the Titans' on Capitol Hill In addition to obscenities, what made Goldman's Senate hearings so exciting was the Hollywood-like cast of characters By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT WAS he playing the role of the unrepentant villain of the Capitol Hill production 'Clash of the Titans'? Or was he the Good Guy who turned out to be the Bad Guy and who was now pleading for forgiveness, or at least for some empathy from angry lawmakers in the Senate hearing room and the American people who were watching the financial/political crime drama at home? Or will he remain an enigma for most of the audience long after the film credits are shown? There are no simple answers to these and similar questions. But one thing was clear. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein was the star of the Washington vs Wall Street show - all 10 hours and 40 minutes of it. Other proposed names for the spectacle included 'Lawmakers vs Bankers', 'Uncle...

Business Times - 27 Apr 2010 Again, Obama shows that he prefers evolutionary change By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT DURING a much anticipated speech in New York last week, US President Barack Obama made a push for Wall Street reform just as the US Senate was preparing to debate legislation on overhauling the financial regulatory system. Against the backdrop of the recent fraud charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against financial giant Goldman Sachs, some pundits expected Mr Obama to deliver a hard-hitting populist message against Wall Street, blaming the financial industry for the Great Recession, and calling on an angry American public to support the White House and the Democrats in their efforts to impose tough regulations on the greedy bankers. Listening to President Obama in the audience estimated to be 700 at Cooper Union in lower Manhattan (a venue just a short ride from Wall Street) were America's top financial leaders, including much-disparaged G...

Business Times - 21 Apr 2010 Republicans put on the defensive by Obama Goldman fraud case seen as providing Democrats with leverage to press GOP to help approve financial reform bill By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT ONE of the major turning points in the Congressional debate over the legislation to reform healthcare was the decision on Feb 12 this year by a California-based healthcare insurance company, Anthem Blue Cross, to raise premiums by 39 per cent. US President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies on Capitol Hill seized on the announcement as proof that healthcare insurance reform was needed and launched a series of devastating attacks on the insurance industry. The campaign helped produce political momentum in support for the legislation that eventually was approved by Congress, despite strong Republican opposition. Now Mr Obama and the Democrats are finding themselves once again entangled in another legislative gridlock with Republicans - this time over financial regul...

Business Times - 16 Apr 2010 Obama's pragmatic stance on N-arms His proposals reflect the new global strategic realities and show he is no dreamer as his opponents make him out to be By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT LISTENING to Republican politicians and conservative pundits bashing US President Barack Obama's proposals to limit and eventually eliminate the use and supply of nuclear weapons, one would have to reach the conclusion that the current occupant of the White House is a naive and sentimental peacenik. In their view, he lacks a basic grasp of US national security interests and is pursuing a policy that will weaken American power worldwide. In short, Mr Obama is so much unlike President Ronald Reagan and other US presidents who have never been caught day-dreaming about a nuclear-free world or who would sign comprehensive arms control deals with the Russians. Hence, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and a 2008 Republican presidential candidate described Mr O...

Business Times - 14 Apr 2010 Averting a currency war NEWS reports from Beijing suggest that China may be on the brink of allowing the value of its currency to rise, perhaps by as much as 3 per cent against the US dollar. While a 3 per cent change is relatively small, a deal between Chinese and US officials on boosting the value of China's currency could have important economic and political implications for both the United States and China as well as for the global economy. The expected Chinese currency re-evaluation followed a visit to China by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last week, a few days before Chinese President Hu Jintao's arrival in Washington on Monday. One important outcome of a Chinese currency adjustment against the US dollar would be political. It would turn the currency question from a hot-button issue into a manageable problem in Washington. This could help ease pressure on the Obama administration from lawmakers to name China a 'currency manipula...

Business Times - 09 Apr 2010 'Maestro' Greenspan out to protect his legacy By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT THEY were hoping that the 'maestro' would provide some light about how the policies of the US central bank may have helped create the conditions for the devastating financial crisis that almost brought down the entire American economy. But then, in an emblematic moment, Alan Greenspan ended up leaving them literally in the dark. It is the Broadway producer's worst nightmare: The power goes off on the stage and interrupts the leading actor in the middle of his performance. Indeed, the Capitol Hill hearing room went dark at 11.44am on Wednesday during the most dramatic show of this political season in Washington, DC. The former Federal Reserve chairman was beginning to respond to a question from panel chairman Phil Angelides during the Congressional hearing by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) and . . . oops . . . power was off for 23 minutes,...

Business Times - 08 Apr 2010 Obama's juggling act on China's currency By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT THE decision by the Obama Administration to delay issuing a report that might have identified China as a 'currency manipulator' was a smart move. It stems from both geo-strategic considerations - the need to co-opt the Chinese into a united international coalition in dealing with Iran's nuclear programme - as well as from the recognition that behind-the-scenes bilateral negotiations between the American and the Chinese, including a series of trade-related meetings scheduled through May and June, could bring about some progress on China's currency. A tough American stand would only ignite a costly Sino-American diplomatic and economic crisis. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner made the decision over the weekend, explaining that he was going to wait a while before he announced whether or not he thought China was officially manipulating its currency. Chi...

Business Times - 06 Apr 2010 Obama will still face angry voters in Nov Despite favourable recent news, the rate of long-term unemployment is still climbing By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT PRESIDENT Barack Obama 'has kept all his promises' and was 'truly the greatest president ever', declared the Republican National Committee last Thursday, April 1. The statement issued by the governing body of the Republican Party went on to praise Mr Obama for solving global warming 'by replacing cars with low-emission unicorns' and achieving an unemployment rate of 'negative 39 per cent', among various 'accomplishments'. And if you still didn't get it, the statement concluded by reminding the readers that it was, well, an April Fools' Day joke from your very funny Republican Party. But President Obama himself was probably not laughing a lot this week. A new USA Today/Gallup survey issued the same day was not a joke. It suggested that the number o...

No Tea Parties for "Bibi" on IPS Right Web.

Business Times - 26 Mar 2010 Pumped up Obama heads for Wall St He is ready to press for immediate legislation to reform the financial sector while resisting Republican pressure By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT IN THE aftermath of their impressive legislative victory in getting the healthcare reform Bill approved in Congress over the weekend, US President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies on Capitol Hill seem to be in a fighting mode. They have made it clear that they are ready to press for immediate legislation on comprehensive reform of the financial sector's regulatory system. And they are resisting the pressure from Republicans to slow-down the legislative process. Mr Obama and the Democrats hope to complete it even before the November mid-term Congressional election. The Democratic majority in the House of Representative has already succeeded in getting that legislative branch to pass a bill last December. And on Monday, the action moved to the Senate where the key b...

Showdown at the Settlements Corral: Can Obama Remake the Bush-Baker Classic?,"

Business Times - 23 Mar 2010 Healthcare win gives Obama new momentum He's now in a position to press ahead with rest of his domestic and foreign policy agenda By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT SINCE Barack Obama entered the White House, Republican leaders have vowed to turn the debate on his ambitious plans to restructure America's healthcare system into the new president's 'political Waterloo'. It was a plan to tear down what has been seen as the centrepiece of his domestic policy agenda. The Republicans would then be able to destroy his presidency and regain control of Congress in the 2010 midterm elections. They would then ensure that President Obama would not be re- elected for a second term. And indeed, a powerful coalition of Republican lawmakers, lobbyists for the health insurance and pharmaceutical industry and the agitated Tea Party protesters marshalled their enormous political and financial resources - and through the sophisticated manipulation of th...

Business Times - 20 Mar 2010 Time to cool China, US tempers A failure may result in another economic recession, and perhaps even a new cold war, from which no side would be able to decouple By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT MEMBERS of a bipartisan coalition of US lawmakers are accusing the Chinese of a plot to manipulate the value of its currency in order to boost its exports and make American imports harder to sell in China. And the lawmakers have introduced legislation that would force the US Treasury to impose stiff penalties against China and other countries that are engaged in such unfair currency manipulation. In the House of Representatives 130 members of the House of Representatives signed a letter protesting China's manipulation of its currency while in the Senate, a group of 14 Democrats and Republicans are pressing the Obama Administration to act against the Chinese. The senators, led by liberal Democrat Charles Schumer from New York and conservative Republican Lind...

Interview on Norway TV

Business Times - 17 Mar 2010 Obama's balancing act on US trade policies His thrust for exports shows he is adopting a more activist stance on global trade issues By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT MOST of the purveyors of the conventional wisdom in Washington concluded a while ago that President Barack Obama would not be able to make any significant move on global trade any time soon. Against the backdrop of rising populist sentiments around the country and in Congress that reflect the economic distress afflicting much of the country, the current White House occupant is not in a position to start promoting an energetic free trade agenda that would require removing the remaining restrictions on foreign access to American markets. To put it in very simple terms, the American people who have been at the receiving end of daily reports about the loss of American manufacturing jobs to foreign competitors - dramatised by the expanding US trade deficit - are certainly not in a mood to ...