Tuesday, November 21, 2006

When will Israel attack Iran?



















I'm not an "Intelligence analyst" and I don't play one on television. But I urge you to study the following items:
1. Seymour Hersh new piece in The New Yorker, "The Next Act:
Is a damaged Administration less likely to attack Iran, or more?"


2. Tony Karon's "Israel's Domestic Political Games Raises the Danger of a U.S.-Iran War."

3. Aluf Benn's "Olmert's Drums of War" in Haaretz.

4. Bush:I would understand if Israel chose to attack Iran.

5. Michael Oren's op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal on November 16 which is only accessible to subscribers. So here are a few interesting quotes:
Much like 1967, Israel faces a Middle Eastern leader who has repeatedly sworn to wipe it off the map, and to that end is assiduously trying to acquire nuclear weapons. Like Nasser, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can cripple Israel economically by keeping it in a state of alert, driving away foreign investment and tourism. In the absence of international commitment to thwart Iran's nuclear plans, Israel has no choice but to consider striking pre-emptively. Doing so, however, requires explicit U.S. support, or at the very least, an indication that the U.S. will not oppose such action. Like Eban 40 years earlier, Mr. Olmert came to Washington in search of a green light.

But the U.S. is hardly in the position to sanction an Israeli attack. Bogged down in Iraq and hemorrhaging political capital at home, Mr. Bush resembles Johnson in his inability to approve risky military initiatives. As inimical to Mr. Ahmadinejad as his predecessor was to Nasser, and at least as sympathetic to the Jewish state, Mr. Bush is nevertheless unable to undertake a unilateral attack against Iran or even to endorse an Israeli one.

This was bad news for Mr. Olmert. The Israeli prime minister hoped to secure a hard-and-fast timetable for interdicting Iran's nuclear program first by diplomacy and then, if that failed, by force. Instead, he heard that the U.S. would only support measures to isolate Iran economically and balked at the use of bombs. Though he and his administration have routinely stated a determination to prevent Iran from obtaining strategic capabilities, Mr. Bush, in the aftermath of his party's electoral defeats, avoided all public mention of armed power as a means of achieving that goal. [emphases added]

[ . . . ] Mr. Bush is unlikely to be more successful than Johnson in marshaling international strictures against a defiant Middle Eastern regime. Nor was Mr. Olmert liable to extract from Mr. Bush more concrete backing for pre-emptive action than Eban did from LBJ. At most, Mr. Bush could have signaled his sympathy for Israel's plight and for the steps it must take to ensure its survival. The light Mr. Olmert received in Washington was probably not green, but neither was it flashing red.

[ . . . ] The Six-Day War was a seismic event that profoundly altered the Middle East, with reverberations that continue to convulse the region. An Israeli strike at Iran's nuclear facilities could well have a similar impact, especially as Mr. Ahmadinejad and the mullahs are certain to react violently.

Mr. Olmert and his government must consider such consequences as they decide on Israel's next moves. The ramifications of that decision are certain to affect America as well. Many Arabs to this day believe that the U.S. was complicit in the Six-Day War, and even that American pilots flew Israeli planes. Such rumors will again be rife if Israel attacks Iran, and especially if Israeli jets pass through Iraq's American-controlled airspace. Israel may indeed act alone, but in the minds of a great many people in the Middle East, the U.S. acts with it.


And... finally. According to most press reports, the Baker-Hamilton Commission is going to issue a report before the end of the year which will recommend U.S. engagement with Iran and perhaps the re-start of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process (meaning more U.S. pressure on Israel).

So... when you take all the above items into consideration I would say that Israel has a "window of opprtunity" of about two months to attack Iran's nuclear sites. Such an attack will certainly be good news for the neocons and their allies, since it would sabotage any possible U.S. efforts to engage Iran and to end the Iraq mess. An Israeli attack will also probably ignite a U.S. confrontation with Iran.

57 comments:

ISRAOIL said...

Stupid man--the Iran President NEVER said that Israel be wiped off the map. Get your facts start. Lying twit !

yehuda cohn said...

It is true that the Iranian president never said that Iran (or any other country or group) would or should physically destroy Israel, i.e., thereby wiping it off the map.

He did say that the nation of Israel should not have been placed where it is, rather it should be situated in Europe and thereby geographically wiped from the map of the Middle East.

Brian said...

Juan Cole translated it as something like "removed from the pages of history", which could be better or worse depending on how you look at it, but I think it is not as agressive a statement as "wiped off the map."

The Stuffmeister said...

Wow. I'm impressed with the commenters. This is the first time I've found anybody pointing out that the worlds press mis-translated Ahmadinejad's infamous "wiped off the map" statement. It has been well and truly as overused as the nebulous "WMD" was in 2002.

abraham said...

The mistranslation has been pointed out many times, but with major news organizations like CNN, Reuters, AP, etc., repeating the joint Israeli and US propaganda, it's no wonder people continue to think that Ahmedinijad threatened Israel's existence.

But more to the point, Ahmedinijad was completely correct in his rhetoric: Israel should never have been forced unto the Arabs. The person who killed more Jews than anyone else was a European Christian, so it's only logical that the Jews should have been given a homeland in a European Christian area.

However, the Zionist had always planned to setup their illegal colony in the land known as Palestine. Hitler was just a facilitator. In fact, Zionists owe their success to Hitler.

How's THAT for a controversial statement?

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Anonymous said...

I read your Cato paper on the "Green Peril" six years ago when trying to educate myself on the US's ME attitude.

I go back and reread it now and then just to see how close you were to what has played out and all the players involved.

I would say you were dead on target about almost everything..and it has all come to pass.

Anonymous said...

I love this tough talk by Israel's propoganda machine, which is the same one that runs the US machine. Fact is, Iran already has the bomb, and has had it for at least two years (they bought them). All that's left for the "Israelis" is bluff and bluster. Their military is a motely joke, afraid to fight and can't even take taken the Gaza Palesinians. They know that in the near term they'll have to pack up their trash and get out of the Middle East. Trouble is, they will have to cross the seas of hatred created by them for lo these many years. They are already making a bid for settling in Germany, and will soon be making demands for land, autonomy, ... the usual. Don't think this will go down well with Germans citzens. The whole extorsion process will be very predictable, but interesting nevertheless.

Anonymous said...

One might observe that "Mission Accomplished" was declared way too soon for the famous "Six Day War," also. Still, that war is very much alive and unsettled.

Colin C. said...

To 'Anonymous' who stated that Iran already has a nuclear bomb:

Where did you get this information?

The CIA has found no evidence of a weaponized nuclear program in Iran. The State Department estimated that were Iran to try and build a nuke it would take over ten years. The IAEA has found no evidence of bomb making (although they have been restricted in a few places). Right now, it's the same people saying Iran has a nuke that said Iraq had WMD. It's total BS. As a signatory of the NPA they are allowed to build nuclear reactors. As a nation threatened by two nuclear-armed countries (US and Israel) is it any wonder that they might want to develop the sole thing that discourages attack and invasion of their country? Who are we (Americans) to complain about nukes when we have thousands upon thousands and we turn around and sell parts and technology to India and Pakistan?

Bottom line is: No good will come of an attack on Iran. Be it by the US or by Israel.

Global Paradigms said...

Thanks for all your comments. I'll be discussing the issues raised in this post in the next issue of The American Conservative.

Anonymous said...

If Israel has nuclear weapons, any country in the region has the right to get them, specially when Israel behaves in such an aggressive way with their neigbours (recently Pallestine or Lebanon)

Any economic sanction or militaristic actions that western governments propose for Iran, should be applied to Israel

Anonymous said...

The Iran and it's president is a real threat to Middle east (I do not think they are a threat to rest of world). Whether they have nuclear weapon or not, it is important to know how they could use it. It is easy to make a nuclear wepon as Pakistan did. But keep it safe or handle it properly is difficult. It would be like a ball in a monkey's hand

Anonymous said...

you know what i think,i think Iran should be wiped out of the map! Yeah that would be great and then all other arab nations one after another.Dont get me wrong i am an Xmoslem myself,but i see the danger coming from those islamic countries (besides terror) which is slowly but surely islamization of the world.Which trust me wont be pretty in the end

Anonymous said...

Dont forget that the Islamic regime in Iran does not represent the Iranian people but an Islamic ideology. Iran had good relation with Israel before the revolution and after Israel there are more jews in Iran than any where else in ME. Iranian people want more than anything else to get rid of this regime.This regime pushing an ideology that is killing Iran from whitin. Dont say bomb Iran say bomb the regime, its a huge difference.

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The showdown is coming. For those of you who know how to read...borrow a Bible from someone and read the book of Revelation...then hide and watch it all come to pass. Bad "ain't"
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Rider on the white horse... said...

Oh by the way...I forgot to mention, Israel is God's chosen nation. I don't care what force comes against them...they will prevail because of divine intervention. Anyone who thinks otherwise is quite ignorant.

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