Global Paradigms

Enjoy my gloom-and-doom forecasts about A Perfect Geopolitical Storm Taking Shape as the the continuing mess in Iraq, the specter of an assertive nuclearized Iran leading a Shiite Crescent and a Hamas-controlled Palestine combine with anti-Western sentiments in the Middle East to ignite global tensions.

Google "repsected pollster" and "Palestinian" and you'll get quite a few hits leading you to like here to Khalil Shikaki the, yes, "most respected pollster in the West Bank." Martin Kramer exposes this guy as someone who has failed to do his job as a pollster especially before the parliamentary Palestinian election. According to Kramer, foreign governments and organizations (who help finance his polling outlet) as well as the Israeli intelligence had relied in his pre-election polls that failed to forecast the Hamas victory. According to Kramer: Shikaki runs something called the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, which gets money from foreign governments and foundations to conduct opinion surveys. They've earned Shikaki the moniker of "respected pollster," and he's always running off to Washington or a European capital to present his findings. Shikaki conducted three crucial polls that affected perceptions in Washi...

Democracy Promoter Jim Henley comments here on my recent critique of the Bush administration's effort to pursue in two contradictory policies in the Middle East: maintaining hegemony and promoting democracy: Leon Hadar thinks Bush Administration foreign policy is like a TV commercial. Funny article. My cautions: We have to be very careful to separate out three distinct issues - whether itÂ’s good for the United States if Democracy spreads; whether the United States should actively push other societies toward democracy; whether the United States should fight wars to bring some form of democracy to other countries. My answers are: 1) All things considered, yes; 2) Sometimes maybe, though itÂ’s important not to get ahead of the cultural support system for democracy in any particular country - my preferred model is actually the AFL-CIOÂ’s work in Poland in the 1980s; 3) Man, what? In the specific case of Palestine and Hamas, IÂ’m less convinced than Leon that the alternatives were vi...

Powell: His devastating critique of President Bush's Iraq adventure is scheduled to be published in 2010: Just in time Nixon: Foreign Affairs will publish his critique of the 2007 Iran War (via Bill Safire): Inquiring minds want to know My good friends at the Stop The Spirit Of Zossen weren't very impressed with what Washington wonks consider now to be "must-reading," Paul Pillar's critique of the misuse of intelligence to drum support for the Iraq war which was published in the new issue of Foreign Affairs . Here are the wise words of Dr. Strauss: The Paul Pillar piece from Foreign Affairs is one of the most aggravating items the Stiftung has read recently. Pendantic and unconsciously retro, it arrives and lands like a wet noodle thrown against a wall, only to slither and slink to the floor. So what? News to Mr. Pillar — we know this. We have known this for 3 years. The problem with Pillar and the rest of the pre-2003 Intelligence Community hunkering down trying...

I guess that burning embassies can also get exhausting and we might have to postpone the War of Civilizations to another time (U.S. or Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities?). In any case, I thought this would be a good opporunity to give my own awards to the two best columns that were written on the cartoons war. The very smart Martin Wolf of the Financial Times Of rights and virtues and the very witty Michael Kinsley of the Washington Post/Slate The Ayatollah Joke Book: So,the Prophet Mohammed walks into a bar … are the winners. The two defend freedom of expression and freedom of the press against both religious fanaticism and secular PC and stress that neither Holocaust denial and Holocaust "jokes" should be censored. I totally agree since I don't believe that bad taste and stupidity should be illegal. In fact, if we had such law I would first target Rap musicians for prosecution before jailing David Irving. Here is some points that Wolf made: I am the chi...

via sf.indymedia.org Take some ideological bias, mix it with wishful thinking, a search for good news, and not-very-bright journalists, and what do you get? A series of reports and analyses in the U.S. media in suggesting that we're about to see a Happy End to the Bush Administration's horror movie, "The War Cabinet of Dr. Strauss." First, came the news (on February 6) that "As 'Neocons' Leave, Bush Foreign Policy Takes Softer Line" in the Wall Street Journal proposing that "Ms. Rice Changes Approach To Iran and North Korea" but that "Democracy Still Key Goal" and that perhaps these were all signs of "Cheney's Waning Influence?" or perhaps not. Here are some highlights: In the past year, the ranks of the neoconservatives within the administration who molded the American response to 9/11 have grown thin and their influence has ebbed. At the same time, a band of "neorealists" has been gaining power. They sh...

One of the best television commercials I've seen for a while comes from Sprint promoting its Fair & Flexible Plan for cell phones. We see a pompous business executive discussing the Sprint plan and then telling his assistant that joining the plan is his way of "sticking it to the Man." The assistant is shocked: "But, sir, you ARE the Man." "I know," responds the executive "So you're sticking it to yourself," his aide ask. The executive: "Maybe." I actually used that television commercial in my recent talk at the Nixon Center to illustrate what's wrong with the Bush's Administration's policy in the Middle East. To put it in simple terms, the Bushies -- in fact, the entire U.S. foreign policy establishment -- is promoting a strategy based on the need for the United States to be the hegemonic power, the Boss, the Man, in the Middle East. At the same time, the same administration led by its neocon ideologues is adv...

We miss you, man; how about going on a UJA fund raising trip? After Iraq was "liberated" and Saddam was ousted Iad published several commentaries that while made it clear that I thought the ex-dictator was bloody thug (and worst) also raised a note of caution, suggesting that one day we might miss the guy, in the sense that we ended missing the Russia Czar and the German Kaiser when Stalin and Hitler were in power. In Saddam, Stalin, Hitler and History I had written that: This is not to dispute that Hussein was a monster like Stalin and Mao — he certainly was. However, the more relevant point to consider is whether whatever or whomever replaces him will be an improvement over the status quo ante. Might we — and more importantly, the Iraqi people — feel a similar sense of nostalgia toward Saddam Hussein years from now? Let us hope not. But if the country degenerates into a bloody civil war à la Afghanistan — with weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of warlords...

The Nixon Center and the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy co-hosted on Wednesday an afternoon roundtable on the Hamas victory and its implications for U.S. foreign policy and especially the Bush Administration's democracy agenda in the Middle East. Alexis Debat, a French terrorism expert and I gave short presentations and Nikolas Gvosdev , the editor of The National Interest and Senior Fellow for Strategic Studies at the Nixon Center moderated the discussion that followed which was off-the-record. Let me also draw your attention to the new February 27, 2006, issue of The American Conservative in which I have a cover story that deals with the U.S. global democracy crusade. The new issue is not yet available on the internet but can be purchased in bookstores. Also, for those who are interetsed, here are the brief talking points for the presentation today: •The policy issue we are discussing today – the victory of Hamas in the Palestinian parliamentary election and its effe...

Guys "offended" by what they read I'm pasting here a commentary of yours truly published today in The Australian . I'm aware that some of those who share my views on the Iraq War, might not agree with me on this. Sorry, but the fact that those who published the cartoons are or aren't neocons doesn't change my view that when it comes to our basic values of freedom of expression and press we shouldn't bow to pressure from anti-Western thugs who use violence against those who disagree with them. Period! I'm very much opposed to the notion of Clash of Civilizations. In fact, in 1993 I published a piece in the prestigious Foreign Affairs in which I challenged those fanning the fear of political Islam and the Cato Institute them published a long policy analysis ,"The 'Green Peril': Creating the Islamic Fundamentalist Threat" along those same lines. Needless to say that Daniel Pipes didn't like what I had to say then. So I really don...

I finally got to see Albert Brook's Looking for Comedy in the Moslem World on Sunday just as the Moslem world was projecting its not-very-funny face in the form of violent demonstrations against those "offending" cartoons. I'm not a great fan of Brooks who is a B Grade Woody Allen and the movie is not very funny. But what really impressed me was the somewhat "conservative" message that came out of the film. Instead of trying to preach to us that "of all the casualties of globalism, religious sensibility is the most hurtful," like Simon Jenkins does in a column full of tiring multicultural slogans in the London Times , Brooks basically conveys to us a reality in which we have to accept that not all cultures are the same; that while we do share many universal traits -- we all laugh -- our concepts of what is funny (or tragic) might not be the same. It doesn't have to lead to a Clash of Civilizations. I've been very critical of this self-fulf...

Diana Moon, whose blog Letter from Gotham I LOVE (!) emailed this version of John Lennon's "Nowhere Man." Well, if you've read my last post that is certainly an appropriate way to mark the generational link betwen Woodstock and Davos... Well, something like that. Davos Man He's a real Davos Man, Sitting in his Davos Land, Making all his Davos plans for nobody. Doesn't have a point of view, Knows not where he's going to, Isn't he a bit like you and me? Davos Man, please listen, You don't know what you're missing, Davos Man, the world is at your command. He's as blind as he can be, Just sees what he wants to see, Davos Man can you see me at all? Davos Man, don't worry, Take your time, don't hurry, Leave it all till somebody else lends you a hand. Doesn't have a point of view, Knows not where he's going to, Isn't he a bit like you and me? Davos Man, please listen, You don't know what you're missing, Davos Man, the ...

Little minds and lushy lips (plus Bill Gates) for a small world Davos: I should have found a seat next to the door. Really have to go to the potty Woodstock: It's so groovy -- man Now... Where would you want to be? For members of the 1960's generation it was the 1969 rock concert at Woodstock. If you were there, you were part of the countercultural "mini-nation" in which minds were open, drugs were all but legal and love was "free". Indeed, Woodstock became part of the cultural lexicon of the 1960's. As Watergate is the codeword for the national crisis of confidence of that age, Woodstock has become an instant adjective denoting youthful hedonism and 60's excess. "What we had here was a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence," according to Woodstock "historian" Bert Feldman. "Dickens said it first: 'It was the best of times. It was the worst of times'. It's an amalgam that will never be reproduced again." And then cam...

And for thank for the provocative Brussels Journal edited by Paul Belien for providing me with an opportunity to (finally) see these "offending" cartoons (click the above image and link to the Brussels Journal). My advice to the "offended" Moslems: Just don't read the Danish and other newspapers!

Whose who? You've got to love these kids... And their parents Their guys know how to pose Mass Murderer: Reem Raiyshi Mass Murderer: Baruch Goldstein

That smart? My online pal Dr. Leo Strauss (we were both enrolled at the famous Gymnasium Philippinum; but he graduted two years before I did, so we never had a chance to meet face-to-face) has a great post on his Stop The Spirit Of Zossen drawing my attention to a certain Dr. Weistein praising Dr. Condi for her remarkable geo-strategic vision. Perhaps Dr. Weinstein is hoping to get selected as America's pro-consul in Iran. In any case, Dr. Strauss is doing a wondeful job in demolishing the notion that Condi and the Bushies have joined the "realist" camp and that they have this plan to work with Kazahstan? to bring stability to Eurasia. To paraphrase Alfred Mackinder, "Who transforms AID commands the world." Or something along these lines. He notes that much of what is attributed to Condi by Weinstein has been plagiarized from the work by another great strategic thinker, Thomas P. Barnett, who has this theory that the international system is divided between na...