Sunday, July 16, 2006

"War, What is good for? Absolutely Nothing"*














*O Jays

Even some of the guys and gals I trust in terms of understanding what's up in the world seem to be confused about the recent Mideast Madness. Leading think-tanker Steven Clemons thinks that Some Questions Regarding Israel's Objectives: Is Israel Trying to Curb America's Deal-Making in Middle East? while veteran Mideast watcher Robin Wright concludes thatStrikes Are Called Part of Broad Strategy U.S., Israel Aim to Weaken Hezbollah, Region's Militants, while Israeli journalist and peace activist Uri Avnery suspects Israeli-American collusion with an unidentified Lebanese "elites." In fact, my online pal Michael Sharon suggests that Ehud Olmert and George W. concluded a "secret accord" to oust Hammas during the Israeli PM's visit to Washington. (in hebrew). And also check-out my earlier posts on which historical analogies we need to apply (1967? 1973? 1982?) to understand Israel's moves (well, neither and all of them...). Since my main preoccupation is with the global/regional/structural/macro level,let me repeat my "thesis;" Bush's policies of remaking the Middle East, including the ousting of Saddam and the victory of the pro-Iranian Shiites in Baghdad, the election of Hamas, the withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon and the assertion of power by Hizbollah, as well as the Iranian nuclear crisis -- have also helped to shift the regional balance of power in favor of Iran and its proxies, reflected the the recent moves by Hamas and Hizbollah, all of which puts pressures on the U.S. and Israel to counter-balance them. Hence I agree with Robin Wright that they do share some common interests now. Like in 1973, the Americans are hoping that Israel will beat-up the other sides's proxy and then try to use its diplomatic power to shift the balance of power in its favor (recall that the U.S. ended up as the main winner after the 1973 War). But I'm very doubtful that Israel has the military power to oust Hamas and destroy the Hizbollah. The killing of Lebanese civilians is bound to produce an international backlash and force the American to press Israel to cease fire. Also in 1973 the Americans were willing -- they wanted -- to make a deal with Egypt. Today Washington is refusing even to talk with Hamas, Syria and Iran. I doubt very much that Iran is going to be drawn into the war (U.S. certainly doesn't want that to happen), although Israel might try to "humiliate" Syria's Bashar. Least-worst-case-scenario: Hostilities end through UN mediation and some commitment on the part of Lebanon (supported perhaps by the Arab League) to disarm Hamas, and the release of the Israeli soldiers to be followed by some Israeli gestures. I don't see any "solution" in Palestine/Israel in the short-term.

4 comments:

Ahmedinajad said...

ISLAM IS THE RELIGION OF ABRAHAM, MOSES, JESUS AND MUHAMMAD (PEACE BE UPON THEM ALL).
THINK ABOUT IT HOW COULD AN ILLITERATE MAN INSPIRE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE AND 1400 YEARS LATER STILL BE HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE WORLD.
WAKE UP FEAR THE GOD OF ISRAEL AND THE UNIVERSE.
AS A WESTENER THE RATE OF ISLAMS INFLUENCE IS SKY ROCKETING ESPECIALLY IN EUROPE. SO STOP BURYING YOUR HEADS IN THE SAND (no pun intended) LIKE OSTRICHES.
STOP DEMONISING THE FUTURE FAITH OF MANKIND.
IF ISLAM IS AN ARAB RELIGION FOUNDED BY AN ARAB IT WOULD NOT HAVE SPREAD FURTHER THAN MECCA OR MEDINA.

Visit the following websites for further information on ISLAM.
http://www.al-sunnah.com/muhammad_in_the_bible.htm
(MUHAMMAD IN THE BIBLE)
http://www.witness-pioneer.org/vil/Books/MB_BQS/default.htm
(Quran and Science)
http://www.harunyahya.com/
http://www.barnabas.net/
http://www.answering-christianity.com/ac.htm
http://www.islamicity.com/
http://www.islamonline.net/english/index.shtml

Anonymous said...

Bush may be helping Iran on purpose - fattening it up with tactical wins so it will be easier to justify a takedown - with European acquiesence.

For many of the ideologues - bas news is good news. The fact the we are bogged down - provides an endless series of provocations.

You are thinking outdated Doc - In the old days, war was a means to an end - now war is an end in itself. It serves to organize politics and policy. Once everyone accepts that war is the end, not the means to an end , things will begin to make sense.

Anonymous said...

Re: "... international backlash and force the American to press Israel to cease fire."

This will happen - but it will be done like the insincer roadmap - which was pushed in faux way to quell Arab states and street. Recall the anger over Israel's 2002 West Bank ops - So they pushed the road map because they needed to but time to "do Iraq." Doing Iraq was suppposed to create a new dynamic or force some new set of choices, etc. But the road map was probably never intended to be implemented - rather, it establised intel contact, gave a quick answer to equally insincere European 'concern' and helped to cool the heat coming from the Arb states (esp Gulf states with bases)

Global Paradigms said...

well... you might be right about the American position, but I don't think that the Israelis, with a draft/reserve service can remain in war footing forever. We'll have to wait and see re american pressure, etc.