Political and economic analysis
Leon = Happy New YearYou're analysis in Am con is almost perfect here:"Israel’s 1982 operation to decimate the PLO in Lebanon led to American recognition of the Palestinian group, and the U.S. campaign to achieve regime change in Iraq and Iran could end up producing a détente between Washington and Tehran. Such is the irony of history. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon destabilized that country and energized its Shi’ite community in an anti-American and pro-Iranian direction, forcing Washington to rely on the moderate Arab states to repair its position in the Middle East. Likewise, the U.S. ouster of Saddam Hussein helped strengthen the position of Iran and its Shi’ite allies, including those in Baghdad. Since the U.S. doesn’t have the military power or political will to achieve regime change in Iran, it recognizes that it now needs to engage Tehran in order to stabilize Iraq and the Middle East." - If you just do some small editing it will be better and more to the point - For example, you wrote, "Since the U.S. doesn’t have the military power or political will to achieve regime change in Iran ...." This should be modified to be, "Since Bush no longer has the military power or political will to achieve orgasm in Iran ...." Overall though your essay excellen captures the ironic aspect well and that seems to allude traditional analysis. However - going forward, demographic trends in the region loom large too.
One more suggested modification:RE "...forcing Washington to rely on the moderate Arab ..." These states - are they really moderate? Maybe you're just nodding to the convention - knowing your your blog - you know they are not moderate. You don't have to be a neoconservative to realize it's way too easy to be beheaded in these so-called moderate regimes -Maybe Bush likes that abouy them - but it ain't moderate. Incidentally - have you noticed the some of the neos going wobbly on Saudi post Lebanon debacle?
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