Thursday, March 29, 2007

No way out

While some self-described "realists" continue to fantasize that the Bushies are moving towards dialogue with Iran and are preparing under Condi's leadership to launch peace negotiaitons between Israel and the Palestinians, I remain convinced about the inevitability of a war with Iran. Robert Baer seems to agree in a very interesting column in Time which he concludes with the following anecdote:
I called up an Arab Gulf security official and asked him what he thought about it all. He said the view from his side of the Gulf is that if Iran does not soon release the Brits, a war between the U.S. and Iran is in the cards. "I for one am taking all the cash I can out of my ATM," he said before he hanging up.
Tony Karon is less certain:
Much will depend on the actions of both sides in the coming days. Thus far, the temperature of reaction in the West suggests little appetite for confrontation. Indeed, despite passing a mild increase in sanctions over the nuclear issue, the Europeans and the rest of the international community are pushing hard for a return to negotiations with Iran, in search of a grand bargain on the nuclear issue. But should the Iranians, perhaps motivated by domestic balance of power considerations, resort to grandstanding demagoguery — by, say, carrying through on their threat to put the captured Brits on trial — they would be playing into the hands of Dick Cheney and the party of war.
It seems to be that what may be tilting the balance of power in favor of the pro-war group in Washington are the clear signs that the House of Saud are sending a message to the House of Bush that unless they "do something" about Iran they'll move to make a deal with Iranians. As I explained in Is Washington Being Sidelined on the Middle East?, the Saudi position, reflecting the erosion of U.S. power in the Middle East, is making it also less likely that we will see any movement in the Israeli-Palestinian front. So...put yourself in Bush's shoes, under political seige at home and with a growing sense that America is starting to loook like a "has been," wouldn't you be more inclined to bomb Iran?


weknow said...

One thing I have noticed over the years is that all these middle east players like to play on the world financial markets with everybody else. Imagine the fun and mischief you can have if you have access. The Brits sphere has been southern Iraq
(or Suburban West Iran if you like) and this little drama happening now gives all players tons of fun potential strategies in derivitive oil, nat. gas and especially U.S. gasoline markets which are going through crazy spreads nationwide.

Both Iraq wars were telegraphed long in advance...Banzai, our satelite trucks lead the way. True War with Iran takes place in pitch dark and it will be over before you read about it in Tom Friedman's column. Oh and look who's Palestine plan is popping up again. There is a huge reconciliation for everyone to prosper over when it is realized how romantic the hajib culture can be and how pretty the girls are in Iran. The youth are going to make waste the traditions of centuries in a few short years. With all the things that are supposedly forbidden; mirrors, cameras, make up, music,etc...laptop computers used by jihadist to journalist to sensualist are upending everything now. The outcome will often be random. Just like a trade...

Anonymous said...

People who don't already need to realize that this is bigger than the US and Iran. Case in point, the Russians and Chinese cannot be any louder in their objections and conspicuous warnings about the US attacking Iran (despite how our the US press completely excludes this news). It doesn't take a Metternich to figure out that an attack on Iran wouldn't end quickly and could very well pull Russia and China in.

Anonymous said...

Dr. Hadar,

I got a kick out of watching how SAD Bill Kristol's body language was when Iran released the Brit hostages. He was just deflated. Its surreal, the guy literally is dissapointed that peace might break out.

Maybe Im too much of an optomist about human beings, but like the posted WHB above.........Iranians are NOT martians. Ive known three and worked for one (his sister was about breathtakingly beautiful by the way.......prettiest hair you've ever seen). They were nice folks. The guys are a little more outgoing and sociable than even Americans are. I just dont believe its beyond reason that Middle Easterners want to have happines and prosperity and personal freedom like we do and instead want to make all the women in the world cover up in burkhas and force a hyper-repressive version of Islam on the rest of the planet. I just dont think its so.

If we can just make it two more years (till Bush is outta there), maybe we can have a real peace in the middle east.............