Monday, May 07, 2007

Demography Is Destiny

My news article, "Demography is Destiny: Birth Rates in the Holy Land may force a two-state solution," has been published in the May 21 issue of The American Conservative. It's not available online yet. But if you click on the images and print you can (I hope) read it:




8 comments:

Brian said...

So, you say what you think Israel will "have" to do, but is that what you think they "should" do?

In other words, is this a prediction, or a recommendation?

Global Paradigms said...

What I predict is that unless Israel gets out of the territories asap, it would face a choice of either becoming a bi-national state or a non-democratic state.

globetrader said...

After reading the related pieces you’ve written recently, I think intra-Jewish demographics inside and outside of Israel call into question whether a Jewish Israel necessarily guarantees a democratic Israel. As you’ve pointed out many times, Israel’s democratic institutions were introduced and continue to be dominated by mostly secular Ashkenazi elites. In Israel, they are steadily shrinking as a percentage of the Jewish population. Outside Israel, they are a group less likely to make alia.

What is your sense of the consequences of this? It seems probable that traditional Jewish law will be revived at the expense of secular democracy as the Orthodox, Sephardim and Mizrahim wield political power in proportion to their numbers, i.e. “Jerusalem” will overwhelm “Tel Aviv.” Have these groups been sufficiently assimilated to prevent this?

Global Paradigms said...

You raise some good points. In fact, one of the pieces of "good news" in all the story has been the Russian immigrants who are mostly secular (and some of them are even Christian). So their arrival helped counter to some extent the political power of the Orthodox Jews, ultra and modern. But they also tend to be less inclined to "Israelize." The Mizrahim (Sepharadim is a term used to describe Jews whose origin is in Spain, many of whom have immigrated to Europe and the U.S., and not to the Arab countries) have mostly been assimilated, but in general tend to be more "traditional." In any case, my main point in the piece that the continuing control of the territories makes in inevitable that Israeli Jews as they lose their demographic majority will have to decide whether they want their state to remain Jewish and not democratic, or democratic and not Jewish.

Louis said...

The phrase "demography is destiny" also just recently appeared in the Wall Street Journal in Barone's latest. This I find to be a watershed event considering WSJ's history of open borders dogma.

I wondered what your thoughts were on how "demography is destiny" applies to the USA and the white West in general. Will a future majority non-white America not be a calamity for the world? Non-white nations do not rank anywhere near the top in transparency or GNP/GDP. California's bond rating hasn't been AAA since the '80s.

Our newest wave of immigrants from Mexico drops out of high school at rates higher than African-Americans. Are they going to be the customers of the future who support the Asian economies?

Anonymous said...

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Jacob said...

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Anonymous said...

I can not read your post. the text is too small. I've been visiting this site since it was first listed to see if it was updated to a better copy. Please update.