...and why I'm worried
1. Republican in the White House in 2009: Why?
The election will be determined by white, middle-class baby-boomers (WMCBB’s) and not by Hispanics, blacks, young voters. The economy is not looking good but the Fed will continue to lower interest rates, providing more credit for home owners, credit-card holders, etc. until November. Meanwhile the rebates from Uncle Sam will compensate Harry & Louise for the rising energy prices. So class-warfare by the Democrats will probably not work with the WMCBB’s. Instead, against the backdrop of Iraq, China/Arabs buying U.S. companies, and sense of U.S. decline they’ll feel nostalgic for the good-old days of the 1950’s, early 1960’s when they grew up and America was so, so powerful and prosperous. McCain will emerge as a cross between Truman, Eisenhower and JFK, the kind of Alpha Male that has led America to National Greatness. Hillary will be portrayed as the, well, a weak, little Girlie while Obama=Osama. Will you trust them to stand-up against the terrorists, Iran, etc? Another terrorist attacks and/or a military confrontation with Iran will provide the musical background for this narrative.
2. McCain will succeed in forming a new Republican Coalition. Why?
Because the majority of Republicans and conservatives support Bush on Iraq and in the war against Islamo-Fascism and from that perspective, World War III/IV will replace the Cold War as the glue holding the coalition together. Period. The immigration bill will be will be “toughened” to appease angry conservatives. And conservative judicial nominations will be blocked by a Democratic majority in Congress, “forcing” McCain to come-up with “compromise” nominees. McCain will adopt a very tough approach against Iran, Russia and China, but will please the Scowcroft crowd by more effective and friendly style. War…Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow.