Friday, February 08, 2008

The meaning of McCain...

...and why I'm worried

1. Republican in the White House in 2009: Why?
The election will be determined by white, middle-class baby-boomers (WMCBB’s) and not by Hispanics, blacks, young voters. The economy is not looking good but the Fed will continue to lower interest rates, providing more credit for home owners, credit-card holders, etc. until November. Meanwhile the rebates from Uncle Sam will compensate Harry & Louise for the rising energy prices. So class-warfare by the Democrats will probably not work with the WMCBB’s. Instead, against the backdrop of Iraq, China/Arabs buying U.S. companies, and sense of U.S. decline they’ll feel nostalgic for the good-old days of the 1950’s, early 1960’s when they grew up and America was so, so powerful and prosperous. McCain will emerge as a cross between Truman, Eisenhower and JFK, the kind of Alpha Male that has led America to National Greatness. Hillary will be portrayed as the, well, a weak, little Girlie while Obama=Osama. Will you trust them to stand-up against the terrorists, Iran, etc? Another terrorist attacks and/or a military confrontation with Iran will provide the musical background for this narrative.

2. McCain will succeed in forming a new Republican Coalition. Why?
Because the majority of Republicans and conservatives support Bush on Iraq and in the war against Islamo-Fascism and from that perspective, World War III/IV will replace the Cold War as the glue holding the coalition together. Period. The immigration bill will be will be “toughened” to appease angry conservatives. And conservative judicial nominations will be blocked by a Democratic majority in Congress, “forcing” McCain to come-up with “compromise” nominees. McCain will adopt a very tough approach against Iran, Russia and China, but will please the Scowcroft crowd by more effective and friendly style. War…Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow.


Anonymous said...

......"The immigration bill will be will be “toughened” to appease angry conservatives"

Lets hope so, but dont bet on it.

In our lifetimes, we will have a "predicatble" electorate, made up of a white majority socialized during the 1960's--1990's. After that, we will have a "diverse" electorate and there is no telling where they will go. Our companies will be owned by alot of foreign interests, we will be in larger debt than now. You can almost see the downward arc of this nation. However, we are lucky in a way........................................other nations are seemingly on the same downward arc. Even China will have something of a mess as its population ages and they have too many oldsters. I also predict in about 15 more years, the chinese workers bees will be having alot of problems with REAL carpal tunnel and other physical health problems in their endless sweat shops amongst employees who have simply spent their health there. That will be a problem for them in the future. India might be ascendant in the next three to five decades. I can point to no country on this planet and authentically say "they are running it right" like America was in 1950-1970 or so.

Future historians (hundreds of years from now) might point back to America in the second half of the twentieth century and note that it was the best anyone ever had it on this planet in terms of general happiness and prosperity. It may not be equalled again.

Global Paradigms said...

Yes. It's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future... I'm not as pessimistic as you are. There are a lot of self-correction mechanisms in the American system. At the same time, the future of China depends on so many uncertain variables.

Anonymous said...

Dr. H wrote,

"There are a lot of self-correction mechanisms in the American system."

California used to be 80% white in 1970 with relatively low taxes and unitrusive government with little crime.

Well that certainly has changed, and one more McAmnesty and it will simply be the Mexafornia with massive white flight that Hanson warned about (even though I can't stand Victor Hanson). Since you cant really address race in polite society, I just dont see a turn around.

What I see is about 20-25 good years until the electoral tide really turns, and then we get to be the new France----with all its problems.