Global Paradigms

National Review Online and the Wall Street Journal editorial page are mad as hell at Israel for not playing the role they assigned to it in their script, which is exactly they way they reacted to the fiasco in Iraq. According to their script, America's proxy -- Israel was supposed to defeat Iran's proxy -- Hizbollah. Hence according to BRET STEPHENS in the WSJ: It is amazing how much can be squandered in the space of three weeks. On July 12, Israel sat behind an internationally recognized frontier, where it enjoyed a preponderance of military force. It had deterrence and legitimacy. Hezbollah's cross-border raid that day was widely condemned within Lebanon and among Arab leaders as heedless and provocative. Mr. Olmert's decision to respond with massive force enjoyed left-to-right political support. He also had a green light from the Bush administration, which has reasons of its own to want Hezbollah defanged and which assumed the Israelis were up to the job. But it se...

Aluf Benn in Haaretz is a reliable source of info and analysis, so I read his latest Giving the war an image of victory, not a draw with great interest. Borrowing from the world of soccer beloved to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the Israel Defense Forces operation in Lebanon went into overtime on Monday. Olmert wants to take another stab at a decisive conclusion before the UN Security Council blows the final whistle. That's why he convened the cabinet on Monday to approve a wide-scale ground operation targeting villages used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Olmert is fighting the battle over public opinion, both at home and abroad. He wants people to see the war as a victory, not a draw. It was this attitude that led Olmert to tell a conference of mayors on Monday that the operation is continuing despite the unfortunate deaths of dozens of Lebanese civilians in Qana Sunday. "Israel is continuing to fight," the prime minister said. One can imagine the slogan as part of a ...

Israeli commentator Uri Avnery is brilliant and demonstrates it once again jn A Nice Little War in which he warns that if the Israeli leaders sense that the perception is that the Hizbollah is "winning," they'll be tempted to target Syria which can be defeated by Israel in a conventional war: When it becomes clear that nothing is helping, that Hizbullah goes on fighting and the rockets continue to fly, the political and military leadership will face bankruptcy. They will need to pin the blame on somebody. On who? Well, on Syrian President Bashar Assad, of course. How is it possible that a small "terror organization", with a few thousand fighters altogether, goes on fighting? Where do they get the arms from? The finger will point towards Syria. Even now, the army commanders assert that new rockets are flowing all the time from Syria to Hizbullah. True, the roads have been bombed, the bridges destroyed, but the arms somehow continue to arrive. The Israeli governm...

I was talking today with a former U.S. diplomat and a Washington "insider" who made the following comment: "I'm beginning to suspect that the Israeli military has been 'Americanized.' They seem to repeating our mistakes in Iraq. Very discouraging for them and for us." This is coming from someone who is a critic of the Bush administration's policies and has been opposed to the Israeli response in Lebanon. My guess is that the Bushies and the neocons are hysterical. After all, much of what the neocons have been pushing for has been the "Israelization" of Americnan foreign policy and national security, in a sense that the Americans should adopt the tough Israeli methods in dealing with global threats, especially vis-a-vis the Arabs who supposedly "only understand force." The problem is that both in Iraq and Lebanon (now and earlier) and in the West Bank/Gaza this approach has proved to be a total failure in terms of policy (forget fo...

I've been busy working on several projects and haven't had the time to write a long item on the "situation." But Tony Karon has been reading my mind, so to speak, and has raised some of the arguments I've been discussing for quite a while. In "Is Israel Fighting a Proxy War for Washington?" he stresses that Bush and Condi have not only given a "green light" to Israel in Lebanon; that they have encouraged that (“Don’t hold back on our account, in fact, make sure you finish them off…”"). And he points out that: I’ve always maintained that the “pro-Israel” position of the Bush administration, formulated and influenced by hardline American Likudniks (whom, it must be said, are hardly representative of mainstream Israeli thinking) is actually fundamentally bad for Israel. Its infantile, aggressive maximalism precludes Israel from doing what it will take to live at peace with its surroundings, instead demanding a confrontational approach in kee...

C-SPAN will air the Cato Institute's Book Forum on "Sandstorm" On Sunday, July 30 at 7:45 pm -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sandstorm: Policy Failure in the Middle East Leon Hadar with James Pinkerton and Geoffrey Kemp Description: Leon Hadar talks about his book, "Sandstorm," at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC. In the book, Mr. Hadar argues that the U.S. should pursue "constructive disengagement" from the Middle East, where the costs of our involvement over the decades has outweighed the benefits. James Pinkerton (Newsday, Fox News) and Geoffrey Kemp (Nixon Center) provide commentary. Author Bio: Leon Hadar is a research fellow at the Cato Institute. He is a former U.N. bureau chief for the Jerusalem Post and current Washington correspondent for the Singapore Business Times. Mr. Hadar is also the author of "Quagmire: America in the Middle East." Also you can listen and/or watch a audio/v...

Media Matters has a great item on Conservative pundits made wildly wrong claims about how Iraq would turn out -- what are they saying now about the Middle East? It's entertaining and depressing at the same time. And Billmon who is right most of the time has critique of Israel:A Blight Unto the Nations , a kind of Cry the Beloved Country expresses genuine sadness over the the policy direction taken by the Israeli leaders. He also has a link to commentary by Meron Benvenisti in Ha'aretz. I also recommend reading Nehemia Shtrasler's commentary in the same newspaper. The second war in Lebanon has no name yet. The army and the government are waiting to see how things work out. If the results are good, Dan Halutz and Ehud Olmert will choose a heroic name to immortalize their action. But if it ends badly - which appears more likely - they will try to belittle it and turn it into a small, unimportant, nameless operation. Expectations were high. For the first time in decades, two...

The Cato Institute held a forum today to discuss my book Sandstorm: Policy Failure in the Middle East. You'll soon be able to watch or listen to the event by clicking on the Cato Institute's Archived Events Online. C-SPAN recorded it, so they should be airing it soon, perhaps as early as this weekend. Meanwhile you should read the review of Dr. Strauss about the event: Looking for some concise, sane and informed analysis of the Middle East chaos? Who isn't. You might do well to check out our friend, Dr. Leon Hadar of CATO and author of the book Sandstorm. Leon was the guest and subject of a CATO policy book forum today. He was joined by a panel featuring Jim Pinkerton of Newsday and Fox News, as well as Geoff Kemp, nee Reagan NSC staff for Middle Eastern Affairs and currently with the Nixon Center. Christopher Preble, Director of Foreign Policy Studies for CATO, served as the able emcee. Leon's innovative analysis has earned strongly positive reviews from James Fallow...

Hope to see you there... Sandstorm: Policy Failure in the Middle East (Palgrave Macmillan, 2005) BOOK FORUM Thursday, July 27, 2006 12:00 PM (Luncheon to Follow) Featuring the author Leon Hadar, Research Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute; with comments by Jim Pinkerton, Columnist, Newsday, and analyst, FOX News; and Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs, the Nixon Center, and Senior Director for Near East and South Asian Affairs, National Security Council (1983–1985). The Cato Institute 1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20001 Watch the Event Live in RealVideo Listen to the Event in RealAudio (Audio Only) Against the backdrop of the war in Iraq, the nuclear crisis with Iran, and the deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace process, there is a growing sense that U.S. policy in the Middle East has failed to advance American national interests. In his book, Sandstorm: Policy Failure in the Middle East, Cato Research Fellow Leon Hadar surveys the hist...

It's interesting that many members of the Reality Based Community (RBC) who have challenged the notion that the United States can "democratize" Iraq and "remake" the Middle East are so, so confident that the United States -- if only it wanted -- could end the current Mideast crisis as well as make peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Well, I remain very skeptical about that and have concluded that in many ways what we are seeing now in the beginning of a process in which the U.S. is beginning to lose its ability to take the lead in global affairs. I don't know how long it will all take. Recall that in the early 1950's pundits were still referring to Britain and France as major world powers. It took several crises, including the 1956 Suez War to demonstrate that that was not the case. So I think that like The Continental character in SNL played by Christopher Walken -- a once-upon-a-time "player" who thinks that at his old age he can still ...

Please read my Let Mideast be EU's problem U.S. should resist calls to 'do something' about the Israel-Hezbollah fighting which was published in the Orange County Register .

You might call it the American foreign policy establishment’s own form of Pavlovian Response. Whenever one people goes to war against another, in any part of the world, it arouses the interventionist impulse of politicians and pundits in Washington. And when that war happens to take place in the Middle East, the urge to “do something” acquires an almost apocalyptic urgency. Indeed, raising the specter of a Middle Eastern war in the Capitol is like shouting “fire” in a crowded movie theater, as the experts warn that a hands-off approach towards a civil war or an inter-state confrontation in the region would risk a global war, an oil crisis and more terrorism. So it is not surprising that the current hostilities between Israel and guerrilla groups in Gaza and Lebanon have elicited a shrill response from lawmakers and talking heads seeking swift U.S. action. ‘This is, in fact, World War III,” former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich says about the crisis, in which the most powerful m...

That's what one reader has posted on amazon.com: Near prescience, July 18, 2006 Reviewer: TXPenguin (Texas) - See all my reviews If only George W. Bush had taken the time to read this book before he plunged the United States into the Iraq War! Hadar's 1992 prediction of disaster stemming from America's interventionist policies has come true. The civil war now raging in Iraq came about from the foolish neoconservative view that democracy could be successfully forced upon the Iraqi people. Hadar effectively refuted such ideas in this book. It is well worth reading especially today with proponents of American meddling in the Middle East planning further wars against Iran and Syria. I happen to agree...

Haifa has been in the news quite a lot in the last few days. I was actually born in that city and although I didn't grow up there I spent several happy summers there with my grandparents, who incidently celebrated their honeymoon in a vacation in Lebanon (that was in the 1920's when you could take a train from Haifa to Beirut). And I also have several good friends in Lebanon and from Lebaon and have always wanted to visit the country. For many years (especially during the Oslo process), I've fantasized about the revival of Spirit the Levant (which includes Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon) hoping that the region could be transformed into a great global center of trade and tourism in which different religious and ethnic could co-exist together as they raise their families, make money, enjoy the great weather, go to the beach, and dream about far-away lands. Maybe one day...Inshallah. Meanwhile I'm very depressed and I hope and pray that the fighting will end ...

My All Hell Breaks Loose in the Middle East provides (I think) a certain strategic perspective on the Mideast crisis/war. More specifically, I see it as a direct consequences of the failure of the Bush/neocon project in the Middle East. Some interesting updates: The Iraqi PM leading the Shiite-led government in Baghdad has defended Hizbollah and conemned Israel . Waiting to see how Kristol, Brooks, etc. will make sense of that. Well, their predecessors in the old Comintern didn't have any problem defending the Stalin-Hitler pact based on some complex dialectics. My guess is that if Saddam was still in power he would by congragulating Israel... I wasn't surprised by the mild Saudi reaction. Some of their guys who have been visiting Washington in recent months have warned the Bushies that they would be forced to make deals with Iran (appease them) unless the Americans take some action against Tehran to restore the balance of power in the Persian Gulf. As In Mideast Strife, Bush ...

Steve Sailer asks:"Please remind me again: Which ones are the Good Muslims: Shunnis or Si'ites?" and "Do we really know what we are doing over there [the Middle East]?" I know it's not very dignified to brag that "I told you so." But if you read my Quagmire: America in the Middle East (published in 1992) and the more recent one, Sandstorm : Policy Failure in the Middle East (links to the two books on the left) one can figure out what's happening there (never-ending tribal, religious, ethnic, and national wars since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire) and what the U.S. should do (start a process of "constructive disengagement" from the region). Just one quote from the book in response to Steve: The U.S. is discovering now what many outside global players have learned the hard way, that it is impossible for any actor to impose its particular agendas on the Middle East. In the Middle East everything is related to everything else; the b...

This girl is so, so excited. Is it Bono? No, she is listening to my podcast on the crisis in the Mideast. I just have that effect on women...(when you access the Cato Institute website, click on the "Daily Poscast." After 7/20 go to Daily Podcast arcive).

Don't worry. There is no live fire here. Bill Kristol and David Frum are alive and well. We're talking here only about the War of Ideas. Dr. Strauss does a great job summarizing the hysteria in the neoconservative camp against the backdrop of the Mideast mess, "appeasement" of North Korea and Iran, Israel in Lebanon, George Will's attack on the Weekly Standard , Weekly Standard's call for joining Israel in war on Iran , etc., including many links and funny stuff. Most disappointing was this Conservative Anger Grows Over Bush's Foreign Policy article which suggests that most conservatives are neo-conservatives. There is no doubt that Will's view reflect a rising frustration among real conservatives about Bush's foreign policy. In any case, my sense is that we all these foreign policy crises are going to lead to very, very interesting times and bring about major changes in America's Middle East policy, an issue that I will discuss next week in ...

Hey, guys, you didn't get it. What he said was: "See the irony is that what they need to do is get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this SHIITE [Nasralla, that is] and it's over." How do I know? A friend of mine covered the Lebanese civil war in the 1970's and he recalls that an American war correspondent from Texas approached him once and asked whether he could tell him something about "these shits." It took my friend a while to figure out that the Texan was referring to "these Shiites."

Sorry, but I've been busy writing commentary and analsis for several newspapers and magazines as well as doing a few broadcasting interviews. But I'm pasting here something on U.S. policy in the Middle East which was I published a while ago and which was based on an address before a group in Washington. Too bad that George Will didn't read it then and wouldn't have to wait so long to come to similar conclusions (sort of). January 24, 2003 In the Wake of War by Leon T. Hadar Leon Hadar is a research fellow in foreign policy at the Cato Institute. Following the end of the first Gulf War and the Madrid Peace Conference, there were high expectations in Washington that a new American-led order would be established in the Middle East. The Madrid Peace Conference and the ensuing Oslo peace process were supposed to lay the foundations for a New Middle East: Peace between Israel and a Palestinian state. And the integration of the region into the global economy. Ten years later ...