Global Paradigms

Well, I've read the earlier press leaks and the declassified version of the National Intelligence Estimate. Here is some of the points I've made in a recent column: IN recent speeches, including several addresses marking the fifth anniversary of the Sept 11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, US President George W Bush has argued that Iraq has become the central front in the war on terrorism. 'The security of the civilised world depends on victory in the war on terror, and that depends on victory in Iraq,' Mr Bush said in one speech on Aug 31. Indeed, with opinion polls showing Mr Bush's Republican Party possibly losing control of both houses of Congress in the coming mid-term elections, in large part due to public unhappiness over the war in Iraq, the president and his political allies have argued that demands for a US troop withdrawal from the country by the Democrats underscored why the centre-left party should not be trusted with the nation's secu...

In my Two Peoples, Two States: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has only one solution which was published a while ago I challenged the idea of establishing a bi-national state aka "one state solution" in the geographical area that includes Israel, the West Bank and Gaza. I haven't changed my mind about the issue and I find it weird that in the aftermath of the violent disintgeration of Yugoslavia and the peaceful divorce of Czechoslovakia as well as continuing talk about ethnic/linguistic divisions in Canada, Belgium and even Great Britain that any serious thinker assumes that Israeli-Jews and Palestinian-Arabs are going to live together happily ever after in a unitary state in the Middle East where similar arrangements (Lebanon, Iraq, Sudan, Algeria)ended in civil wars. But according to reports from Israel there is now less public support for continuing withdrawal from the West Bank and renewed buildup of Jewish settlements there. This suggests that taking into conside...

In case you've missed on recent column on Iran, US-Iran Shootout is Inevitable : Would US President George W Bush and Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad run into each other by chance during their opening session of the United Nations General Assembly this week? That seemed to be the major concern occupying US officials. It seems White House aides were doing their best to avoid a run-in between Mr. Bush and Mr. Ahmadinejad in the hallways of the UN building in Manhattan; for example, the Iranian leader "ambushing" Mr. Bush as he tries to enter the lavatory, igniting a Clash of Civilizations in front of the Men's Room. (read the rest) And with all the recent buzz about the Paks, please check-out some of my the stuff I've written on the topic which seems to be relevant now more than ever: Pakistan in America’s War against Terrorism: Strategic Ally or Unreliable Client, Outsourcing the Hunt for Bin Laden, The Real War on Terrorism Is in Pakistan, Not Iraq, and...

Well... This is kind of reassuring: Make no mistake: boring as it was, the president's speech to the UN today was one of the most important of his presidency. It marks the final fizzling out of his Iran policy of the past three years. Since 2003, the Bush administration has pursued a diplomatic track against the emerging Iranian nuclear program. The tough talk of the "axis of evil" speech of 2002 faded into the background. Instead, the US would await the investigations of the International Atomic Energy Authority. While waiting, it deputed its allies Britain, France, and Germany to negotiate directly with Iran to discover whether any package of incentives might persuade the mullahs to reconsider their determination to acquire nuclear weapons. Both those policies have reached their dead end. Iran has repeatedly deceived and rebuffed the IAEA. The direct negotiations have likewise failed, victims of Iranian intransigence and duplicity. Now the whole matter has been referred...

The following are the comments that I made during a debate on Responding to Anti-Americanism in the Arab World: Has the United States Been Effective Since 9/11?, sponsored by The Donald and Paula Smith Family Foundation , which took place in New York City on September 12, 2006. Thanks to Antiwar.com for the great (!) above title above. I remember landing in New York City for the first time about thirty years ago, and then driving into Manhattan and gazing at the majestic beauty of the Statue of Liberty, the Empire State Building and the Twin Towers. For me they were symbols of New York and what it represented: The energy and excitement of its people, commerce and culture. In 1977, when I got to New York, there was a lot of excitement in the city. On Broadway, the hit, A Chorus Line was playing. There was Studio 54 and the launching of a new television show, Saturday Night Live. John Travolta was doing the disco on Saturday Night Fever and everyone was wearing polyester suits. And ther...

I've received a few emails from friends who wanted to get more info on and impressions from my debate in NYC (mentioned in earlier posts) with David Frum and Craig Charney (seen above). Well, I'm told that the Donald and Paula Smith Family Family Foundation will soon have a video and audio versions of the debate on their website here. It's difficult to figure out who had "won" the debate since most of the people who attended probably arrived with preconceived notions about the Mideast, U.S. policy, etc. Overall it seems to me that Frum and the neocons are now on the defensive and as I noted, I was surprised that he refrained from advancing the Wilsonian/democracy project in the Mideast during his comments. In any case, I was delighted that my views reflecting a libertarian and Realist perspective were aired in such a prestigious forum. On a related issue checkout the new website of National Interest magazine, The National Interest Online which has posted an piec...

Last night (Tuesday, September 12)I took part in a debate sponsored by The Donald & Paula Smith Family Foundation on the following issue: Responding to Anti-Americanism in the Arab World: Have We Been Effective Since 9/11? The debate took place in Manhattan, at The Graduate Center of The City University of New York on Fifth Avenue. I was suppposed to represent the libertarian/non-interventionist position. David Frum, from the American Enterprise Institute was invited to present the neoconservative view, while Craig Charney, President of Charney Research which studies Arab attitudes towards the United States provided a more centrist perspective. We had a good audience of about 200 people and there were some provocative question. The debate was heated but civilized and extended into a dinner. Here are some of my opening remarks which give you an idea about my line: I remember landing in New York City for the first time about thirty years ago, and then driving into Manhattan and gaz...

I've been watching the "docudrama" The Path to 9/11 on ABC which is about how the Clintonites missed so many chances to get Osama before 9/11. some of these instances were documented in Steve Coll's excellent Ghost Wars and other books although this silly docu-drama gets some of these events mixed up. I counted (in the first part) six times in which actors refer to "balls" like "it took some balls" or "balls of steel" which supposedly the Clintonites didn't have (although we do see Clinton insisting he that he didn't have sex with "that woman" and then we get a glimpse of the Washington Memorial -- Get it? Ha, ha, ha -- and then Monica)but that John O'neill played by Harvey Keitel (above) and his very manly and so, so virile pals (including the women) in the FBI and CIA (minus the lawyers) had. Well, I hope we'll get soo a sequel, The Path to Tora Bora , How bin Laden got away after the Bushies deployed the f...

Wikipedia has an interesting summary of the debate on whether Israel should join the European Union (EU) and the implications of such a move. I've been promoting this idea for a long time (as the item points out) and expect it to gain even more momentum in the coming years as the EU adopts a mroe activist role in the Middle East. One interesting point that the piece raised: Today, six per cent of more than six million Israelis already hold a passport from an EU country. Another 14 per cent, or 700,000 people, are entitled to apply for one because they or their parents come from an EU Member State.

For those of you residing in the New York area, you're invited to attend the following conference on in which I'll be one of the three speakers: The Donald & Paula Smith Family Foundation Presents a debate: Responding to Anti-Americanism in the Arab World: Have We Been Effective Since 9/11? Featuring David Frum American Enterprise Institute Author: An End to Evil -And- The Right Man Craig Charney President, Charney Research Award winning Pollster of Arab Attitudes Leon T. Hadar Cato Institute Author: Sandstorm: Policy Failure in the Middle East Over the five years since 9/11, American foreign policy, security policy, and psychology have been reshaped to address Arab anger and the terrorism that can result from it. On 9/11 what most of the world saw as a horrific act of brutality, many in the Arab streets saw as a success. While currently the Iraq war overshadows all, the Administration has also aggressively sought to engage the Arab world and convince it that America is no...

I'm sick and tired of all these silly WWII analogies that have been applied by the Rumsfeld and Company to spin the war in Iraq (and the war on terrorism). I'm writing a long article on the topic which will be published next month. But I do want to share with you this Letter to the Editor that appeared in The Economist in May: SIR– Please do not ever mention George Bush. And Winston Churchill in the same sentence again, even if you must break all the rules of grammar to do so. Steve Pettit California And another short Letter to the Editor on the same subject in Time magazine : Churchill and Bush can both be considered wartime leaders, just as Secretariat and Mr. Ed were both horses. JAMES RHODES Norman, Okla. Exactly my sentiments.

I attended and spoke today in a roundtable on U.S. Foreign Policy sponsored by The National Interest magazine in Washington, DC. Graham Fuller moderated a discussion, "America: A Crippled Superpower?"which was broadcast live on C-SPAN (check-out their schedule. ) Thanks to the editor of the National Interest Nikolas K. Gvosdev for organizing the event that brought together several of the leading "realists" in Washington.

Jim Henley has a very interesting discussion of Andrew Bacevich's piece in the American Conservative , The Islamic Way of War. I usually agree with Bacevich but I have a feeling that this time he did exactly what I accuse the "other side" of doing, that is, inventing a b-s driven grand theory as part of an effort to advance a certain policy agenda. I've been opposed to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, to the Israeli bombimg of Lebanon and support U.S. engagement with Iran but not because something called "the Islamic way of war" is winning, or as Bacevich puts it: the East has solved the riddle of the Western Way of War. In Baghdad and in Anbar Province as at various points on Israel’s troubled perimeter, the message is clear: methods that once could be counted on to deliver swift decision no longer work. Yes, some Moslem militaries are actually quite good -- the Turkish, the Pakistani, the Jordanian -- mostly thanks to training by Western (British) advisors an...

No more "Freedom Fries?" We all recall how in the aftermath of the "liberation" of Iraq Condi Rice stated that US policy towards Europe should be: “Encourage the Russians, ignore the Germans and punish the French.” It was "go fly a kite" you Old Europe (France, Germany and the rest). Poland, Estonia and Bulgaria, the New Europe would now be placed at the center of the "transatlanic alliance." And I can go on and on about the "Freedom Fries" and the "Cheese-eating surrender monkeys" , those Euro appeasers, Arabists, anti-Semites, etc. etc. It all sounded like the Vichi regime was back in power. Well... what do you know... It sounds like Estonia won't be able to deploy its troops to Lebanon to help disarm the Hizbollah....Did you notice how Jacques Chirac and the French have suddenly become the Good Guys in neocon "narrative. Oh, please, please, we really want to see your presence in Lebanon after all the mess the Isra...

I'm back from a short vacation and wanted to provide you with some stuff to read, listen to and watch: First, The globalist has published my recent commentary on the war in Lebanon on its Executive Channel: Focus > Global Security The Mideast Crisis: And the Loser Is … Everyone By Leon T. Hadar What Hezbollah expected to gain by kidnapping two Israeli soldiers and igniting the latest round of Middle East violence may never be fully know. Nor may we understand what Israel expected to gain from its full-throttle response. But one thing is clear: Measuring who won and who lost will be a process of determining who lost most and who lost least. Since the start of the current Middle East crisis, analysts have been trying to figure out who is responsible for this mess. Who had made the crucial decisions that triggered the fighting between the Israeli military and the Hezbollah guerrillas, which has resulted in death of many Israeli and Lebanese civilians and the destruction of villa...

I'll be in Rehoboth Beach, Deleware, undetil August 21st and won't be blogging. Enjoy the rest of your summer!

The Boston Globe has a good report/analysis of the UN Security Council vote which gives yours truly the last word... Let me just add one point/prediction: The Israeli failure to crush Hizbollah will probably make it more likely that the Bush Administration will end up in a military confrontation with Iran and/or Syria. Expect growing pressure from the neocons on the Bushies to "do something" in order to demonstrate that Iran and Syria didn't win this round. And since the Hard-Line Neocons Assail Israel for Timidity in Lebanon here is my proposal, recalling the Spanish Civil War in which some of the neocons's predecessor actually did some fighting: The guys mentioned in the piece (and their many other colleagues) should form the Henry Jackson Brigade to fight in this and the other Mideast War which they love so much. I mean "war" like real war as opposed to the "war of ideas" and real tanks as opposed to "think tanks." Bill? David? Char...

The mood is shifting in Israel: both the general public and political and media elites are getting the war has been a dissaster to all concerned. According to Reuters: Rising Israeli casualties and constant Hizbollah rocket attacks have sharply eroded public support in Israel for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his defence minister, an opinion poll showed on Friday. The survey in the Haaretz newspaper found only 48 percent of Israelis were satisfied with Olmert's performance compared with popularity ratings of more than 75 percent in polls taken in the early stages of fighting against the Lebanese group. read the rest. The new trend in public opinion are shaped by and reflected in the Israeli media, according to the following report in Editor and Publisher: Doubts About War Growing at Hawkish Israeli Daily By E&P Staff Published: August 11, 2006 12:10 AM ET updated Friday NEW YORK From the beginning of the Israel-Hezbollah war last month, the popular daily, Ha'aretz, like ...

Since the start of the current Middle East crisis, analysts have been trying to figure out who is responsible for this mess. Who had made the crucial decisions that triggered the fighting between the Israeli military and the Hizbollah guerrillas and that has resulted in death of many Israeli and Lebanese civilians, including children, and the destruction of villages and urban centers in both countries. And why were these decisions made in the first place? Or to put it in more stark terms: Qui Bono? Who benefits from what seems to be to anyone watching the horrifying images on television, an un-winnable war as well as a major humanitarian crisis? Some observers have speculated the Iranian and Syrians who have been the main source of financial and military assistance to the Hizbollah, have encouraged the Lebanese-Shiite militia to kidnap two Israeli soldiers, a move that led to Israeli military retaliation and ignited the round of violence that we are witnessing now. Underlying ...

In case you've missed: August 7, 2006 Baghdad, Beirut, Doha Trade-talks failure a blow to US strategy in Mideast by Leon Hadar In addition to being the capitals of three Middle Eastern countries, Baghdad (Iraq), Beirut (Lebanon), and Doha (Qatar) have something else in common, and it's President George W. Bush's global policy. While the violence taking place in Baghdad and Beirut is a direct consequence of the collapse of Bush's Middle East policy and much of its geo-strategic approach, the breakdown of the Doha round of trade talks is a reflection of the failure of the Bush administration to project U.S. leadership in the global economic arena. If Washington does not take immediate steps to reevaluate and re-energize its role in global affairs, then not only the United States but the entire international system could be threatened. (read the rest) And: American Proscenium After Zarqawi: The New Thirty Years’ War by Leon T. Hadar When the U.S. government toppled Sad­d...