Global Paradigms

I'm not an "Intelligence analyst" and I don't play one on television. But I urge you to study the following items: 1. Seymour Hersh new piece in The New Yorker, "The Next Act: Is a damaged Administration less likely to attack Iran, or more?" 2. Tony Karon's "Israel's Domestic Political Games Raises the Danger of a U.S.-Iran War." 3. Aluf Benn's "Olmert's Drums of War" in Haaretz . 4. Bush:I would understand if Israel chose to attack Iran. 5. Michael Oren's op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal on November 16 which is only accessible to subscribers. So here are a few interesting quotes: Much like 1967, Israel faces a Middle Eastern leader who has repeatedly sworn to wipe it off the map, and to that end is assiduously trying to acquire nuclear weapons. Like Nasser, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can cripple Israel economically by keeping it in a state of alert, driving away foreign investment and tourism. In the absence of interna...

Dr. Strauss from Stop the Spirit of Zossen emailed a long and very insightful indictment of Condi's role in the Iraq. According to Who Lost Iraq? which was published in US News : President Bush's acceptance of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's resignation was intended to signal a change in course on Iraq. But many national security experts say that Condoleezza Rice, Bush's national security adviser at the time of the invasion, and the National Security Council share much of the blame for the problems in Iraq. "She did not perceive, and the National Security Council did not assess, what is in the United States' interests and what is in the interests of our enemies," says retired Lt. Gen. William Odom, an outspoken critic of the war who served as military assistant to Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser. "Once you make that basic mistake, there isn't any way to make the war come out good. It's all over...

Bush goes to Vietnam, four decades after dodging draft By Sebastien Berger in Hanoi Last Updated: 2:22am GMT 17/11/2006 Bush to face the ghosts of America's last failed war Thirty-one years after the US army left Saigon, President Bush flies in for a visit dogged by the unlearned lessons of history Suzanne Goldenberg Friday November 17, 2006 The Guardian

I'm beginning to reassess just a little bit my excitement about the Baker Commission. It seems to me that "we" have been paying too much attention to the glass-is-half-full side of the "study group," that it's a victory for the "realists" and a defeat for the neocons and that it will give Bush a political cover for changing the course in Iraq, negotiate with Iran and Syria, etc. Well ... with all the "Not-so-fast" warnings with regard to withdrawal from Iraq coming even from some of the "good guys," I'm now concerned that Baker and Company are also going to provide a political cover to Democratic war critics who are hesitant about pressing Bush to get out of Mesopotamia. That could turn out to be the glass-is-half-empty side of Baker-Hamilton. Or is it going to be Baker-Hamilton/McCain-Lieberman, that is, a mushy bipartisan consensus in Congress in support for cosmetic changes in the Iraq policy and perhaps even backing for...

Michael Wolff explains in Survivor: The White House Edition in the new issue of Vanity Fair. (It's not the piece about the neocons bad-mouthing Bush). It's the "third act" of a failing war and "everybody's positioning himself for the end."

Since the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2002, U.S. President George W. Bush has campaigned in one Presidential contest (2004) and two Congressional races (2002 and 2004) as a victorious “War President.” Bush and his Republican allies in Congress have been swimming towards one electoral victory after another by comparing the White House occupant to Winston Churchill and Franklin Delano Roosevelt that was supposedly leading the American people and the Free World in a global struggle against the terrorist network led by Osama bin Ladin and (allegedly) Saddam Hussein and the Axis of Evil rogues nations (Iraq, Iran, North Korea) attempting to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to attack American and the West. The rising sense of nationalism that had swept America after 9/11 has helped Bush and the Republican Party rally the American people around the President, the Flag and the Judeo-Christian Civilization standing up against “Islamo-Fascism,” “wimpy” Europeans, and the “weak,” ...

Just make sure that Bush looks like that when the results come out.

The Prophet Jeremiah:A self-hating Jew Baruch Spinoza: A self-hating Jew David Mamet: Not a self-hating Jew I'm a great fan of David Mamet's films and have seen The Spanish Prisoner and House of Games several times. So I was a little disappointed reading the review of Mamet's new book, The Wicked Son: Anti-Semitism, Self-Hatred, and the Jews. According to the reviewer David Margolick, The book’s title refers to the character in the Passover Seder who distances himself from his people. “What does this ritual mean to you?” he asks tendentiously. For Mamet, he represents a disease among Jews, too many of whom are negative, weak, defeatist, ignorant and ungrateful. They hate their own history and traditions, loathe the state of Israel and are far too prone to trade their precious birthright for the closest cause or cult. Margolick didn't like the book and I agree with most of what he writes here: He has a peculiar knack for finding the most egregiously misbehaving Jews:...

Business Times - 03 Nov 2006 Will US trade policy stall? Increasing Democrat control may weaken pro-free trade forces By LEON HADAR IN WASHINGTON THAT the US midterm elections could result in the Democrats regaining control of Congress is causing some concern among pro-free trade proponents in Washington. After all, the Republicans on Capitol Hill have been leading the push for trade liberalisation in recent years, while many Democratic candidates for the House and the Senate have been campaigning on platforms that criticise globalisation with some of them favouring higher tariffs for imported goods. Indeed, pro-free trade Republican Senators from Ohio, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Rhode Island, and Missouri are now facing strong challenges from Democratic candidates who tend to be more skeptical - of not protectionist - on the issue of free trade. Hence the expectation in Washington is that the most likely consequence of Democratic control of Capitol Hill will be growing pressure ...

Two of my recent pieces from the Business Times of Singapore are pasted here: Business Times - 01 Nov 2006 Will US polls end with a big bang? A Democrat win won't mean Bush will change Iraq policy and withdraw troops By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT A VETERAN British political journalist who has covered all the US presidential races since 1992 is in Washington this week to report on the mid-term Congressional elections that will take place in less than 10 days. 'This is the first time in my career that my newspaper has assigned me to do stories on non-presidential elections in the US,' he told me over lunch in a restaurant on Capitol Hill. 'There is a feeling among my editors that although the elections on November 7th are basically of local nature, they could have a major impact on US foreign policy, and in particular on what's happening in Iraq,' he explained. 'My bosses seem to believe that if the Republicans end up receiving a major blow next month...

My analysis on US-Israel relationship, "Special Relationship," has been published in the new issue of The American Conservative . It is not online yet, but you can read it by clicking on the three pics below and printing them:

Woodward’s Post-Electoral Prophecy by Leon Hadar October 26, 2006 When people are gossiping in the real world out there, they usually tend to exchange some juicy buzz about the rich and the famous, like the latest love affair of this Hollywood star or that famous athlete. Mix a little bit of sex with money, drugs and a few revealing pics and the new issue of People magazine is on its way to the newsstand. But in the capital of the world’s only remaining superpower, tongue wagging can be quite a bit more consequential, and the gossip contained in Bob Woodward’s new book, State of Denial, delivers an implicit prophecy of post-electoral Washington. In the run-up to the elections, there is much speculation about the future power balance on the Hill. Amid this speculation is a clear augury of relative importance, if one interprets the message of Woodward’s sources. In Washington we get titillated by a different kind of gossip. After all, can you imagine The Globe or Hello! Magazine revealin...

Please read my recent piece: The conventional wisdom in Washington is that the North Korean nuclear test is just the latest demonstration of the Bush Doctrine being challenged by an aggressive international player intent on defying the dictates of the current global hegemon. Hence, if after the Cuban Missile Crisis, John Kennedy could say that the U.S. and the Soviet Union stood eyeball to eyeball and the other fellow blinked, this time it was George W. Bush and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il who stood eyeball to eyeball and… Mr. Bush blinked.( more ) Also re The Iraq Study Group headed by Jim Baker. You get the feeling that these guys coming up with cure for cancer. According to leaks, some of their recommendations include dividing Iraq into three mini-states and getting a "strongman" to lead Iraq. Well, they could have saved a lot of money if they have read my commentary from October 31, 2003 : To lower public expectations about Iraq would require the White House to acc...

“I will not withdraw, even if Laura and George W. are the only ones supporting me,” Bob Woodward quotes Barney as saying. Woodward's new book, Barney at War:Searching for Fire Hydrant , is the third of the Barney-at-War Trilogy. The first book was Barney at War: Winning, Doggy-Style followed by Barney at War: Wolfie is a Bitch.

No, it's your humble servant or some other "original thinker" who is making that prediction. It's Establihsment Man Richard Haas in the FT on Tuesday. COMMENT & ANALYSIS CommentCloseA troubling Middle East era dawns By Richard Haass Published: October 16 2006 18:31 | Last updated: October 16 2006 18:31 It is just more than two centuries since Napoleon’s arrival in Egypt heralded the advent of a modern Middle East; but now – some 80 years after the demise of the Ottoman Empire, 50 years after the end of colonialism and less than 20 years after the end of the cold war – the American era in the region has ended. Visions of a new Europe-like Middle East that is peaceful, prosperous and democratic will not be realised. Much more likely is the emergence of a new Middle East that will cause great harm to itself and the world. The American era was one in which, after the Soviet Union’s demise, the US enjoyed unprece-dented influence and freedom to act. What brought it to ...

My George Winston Bush? is now available online.

The Nation and The National Interest hosted on Thursday a foreign policy discussion in Washington titled, "Beyond Neo-Cons and Neo-Libs: Can Realism Bridge Left and Right." It sounded very interesting. But I couldn't attend. So...read Dr. Strauss' very, very interesting report on the event First Date: Progressives And Realists Hold Hands. I personally like the idea of the meeting but I don't think that much will come out of it in terms of future cooperation between "realist" progressives and conservatives.

Now... that's Mission Accomplished And this is Toilet Paper... And this is my comments: Business Times - 11 Oct 2006 Cool heads needed to defuse crisis There is not much the US can do, short of invading N Korea and sparking a war, to prevent Pyongyang from going nuclear By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT NORTH Korea has now forced itself into the global nuclear-weapons club by conducting a nuclear test over the weekend. And even US President George W Bush, who fancies himself as the chairman of this exclusive club and its unofficial bouncer, finds himself in the same position that his predecessor president Bill Clinton had been when India and Pakistan conducted underground nuclear tests in 1998 and asserted their status as nuclear powers. Mr Bush can try to mobilise America's allies and the international community against the new kid in the nuclear bloc, but there is not much that Washington can do - short of invading North Korea and sparking a bloody regional war - to prev...

The Right Web, an interesting webzine that monitors the the complex neoconservative "Comintern" and its many sub-groups and to which I contribute has just published my A New Kind of Neocon? which focuses on the rise of a "neoconservatism with a smiling Democratic face."

I totally agree with Justin Raimondo that the Baker Commission is unlikely to salvage the disaster in Iraq. Baker and the guys who run this operation are the proponents of what I call the "Empire lite" project and are responsible for this mess (I believe that one day historians will be discussing the Gulf War s which started when the Bush-Baker and not Bush-Cheney attacked Iraq. But...if you read Dr. Strauss and David Sanger it's becoming clear that the grown-ups or The Man is returning to set some order in the place. If you're into conspiracy theories, it means that the cabal of CFR/Davos,etc. is going to replace the neocon cabal. Basically it seems that in the struggle for power in the bureaucracy, institutions, interest groups, etc. the neocons are losing. Now... what all of this will mean in practicaly terms, I'm not sure. Probably most of the efforts of Baker and his colleagues is to find a way that would allow Bush to "safe face" as the U.S. t...