Global Paradigms

Which is about the length of time I ended up spending today on 300 (includes also the time it took me to drive to and from the movie theatre,a lunch and a dinner). There is a good discussion of the movie and its politics here and also on Dr. Strauss' blog. The director Zack Snyder rejects the notion that he had a political agenda in the film. Is that is why we have this long discussion between Queen Gorgo and Theron over the to rationale for going to war against the Persians (Iraq?) and over the need to persuade the Spartan council (U.S. Congress?) to send reinforcements to Leonidas? In fact, Theron insists that he is a "realist" and that Leonidas and the other Sparatns who want to want to fight for "liberty" and "freedom" are "idealists?" The movie is basically Victor Davis Hanson for teens and for grown-ups who don't have enough time to read his books.

During the height of the globalization age in the late 1990’s, many leading Zeitgeist watchers were celebrating the rise of the “New Cosmopolitans,” a term coined by business reporter G. Pascal Zachary. A new civilization was being born out of the increasing flow of money, products, ideas, and most important, people, across the borders of decaying nation-states. In this post-modern globalized society, the new determinants for business, political and cultural success were national diversity and a “mongrel” sense of self, Zachary proposed in The Global Me: The New Cosmopolitan Edge, in which he challenged the central tenets of Samuel Huntington’s Clash-of-Civilizations paradigm. In his Global Me, Zachary provided the readers with a tour of the New, New Brave World and introduced us to fascinating characters, ranging from high-tech entrepreneurs to international aid workers, who posses the attractive mix of “roots” and “wings,” that is, hyper-mobile “global hybrids” with “transnational i...

My futuristic scenario has trigerred an interesting disucssion on blog Jim Henley's blog about the global role of the U.S. and the potential for conflict with China. I also want to draw your attention to Steve Sailer's provocative analysis of Israel-Palestine on Taki's Top Drawer and my related comments. In that context, Jackson Diehl in his column in The Washington Post makes the same point I've been making for quite a while, that all the talk, and hope and expectation with regard to the revival of the Israeli-Palestinian "peace process is just a lot of B-S (check for examples this, and this, and this ). Diehl concludes by arguing that: You might think that talking about the parameters of peace can't do any harm. But history shows that it can. President Clinton's push for a peace deal at the end of his presidency raised expectations that, when dashed, helped produce the bloody Israeli-Palestinian warfare that followed. Some Israeli officials fear a ...

From the the March issue of Chronicles magazine: 16 Mar 2007 The War on Terror Ended . . . And the Winner Was Not the United States by Leon Hadar Baghdad, 2027 (Year of the Goat). Special for the Shanghai Post (proud member of the Global Murdoch Group). Unlike some of my readers, I’m old enough to remember the time, during the American occupation of Baghdad, when this part of the city was known as the Green Zone. It was renamed the Yellow Peace Zone ten years ago, after Iraq joined the China-led Association of South-West Asian Nations (ASWAN). In fact, I’m digital-delivering this report on my Chinese-made RedPeony from Ali Baba’s Pagoda Hotel, which is located near the embassy of Greater China and which was built in 2015 in exactly the same location where, two years earlier, a devastating explosion triggered by fighters allied with the al-Sadr brigades destroyed the gigantic U.S. embassy, forcing thousands of American citizens to flee Baghdad and make their way to the Turkish-controlle...

Business Times - 15 Mar 2007 Subprime loans crisis offers some lessons Rising defaults on non-traditional loans cast a pall over the nation's financial sector By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT SOMETIMES you don't need a professional economist to warn you that there might be an economic problem on the horizon. When a friend had told me in 1998 that he was leaving his (quite lucrative) regular job to become a 'day trader' and that he was pulling some of the money out of his pension plan to invest it in a new and promising dot.com company, I had a strange sensation of hearing a balloon burst. I decided that it was time to sell my 'aggressive' technology stocks. So when a few months ago, one of the nice ladies who cleans my apartment once a week told me that she was about to purchase a home in Washington, DC, I was once again hearing a balloon burst. The cleaner is a young immigrant from El Salvador, unmarried and with three kids, a member of what sociologists ...

The Korean-Japanese production The Host tries to be a lot of things: A Sci-fi/horror movie, a screwball comedy, a family melodrama, and a political satire directed against the United States, well, Bush's America. The director Bong Joon-ho argued that "It's a stretch to simplify The Host as an anti-American film, but there is certainly a metaphor and political commentary about the U.S." Let's see if you can figure out the metaphor here: The movie starts in the year 2000 at the U.S. Army base in Seoul, where an American mortician orders a Korean subordinate to dump dusty bottles of "dirty formaldehyde" into the sink and this disgusting toxic stuff ends up in the Han River(this part is based on a real event)and gives birth in 2006 to a Monster (yes, this is also a "monster movie"). Most of the movie revolves around the adventures of the Park family as they fight against the Monster. But the Americans show-up again. They are trying to "libera...

Read my Paulson’s Stride Through Asia on The National Interest Online. The site also carries an interesting exchange on Condi's new necon, a John Bolton with a smiling face, Elliot Cohen.

I don't know about you, but I'm getting a strange feeling that Cheney is on his way out. It's the news, the body-language, the vibes. And I'm guessing that Lieberman could end up as a V.P. which would be a smart move on the part of Bush -- message of "bi-partisanship," messing up the Democrats on Capitol Hill, helping the Republicans, and getting ready for the war with Iran. Well, I said that would be a "smart move on the part Bush" which in itself doesn't make a lot of sense. So I hope that Abu el Banat doesn't leave. I'll miss him...

Two of my recent commentaries on Iraq and related political issues have been posted online: In the February issue of Chronicles : It’s the War, Stupid! Election 2006 and Beyond by Leon Hadar Political analysts, consultants, and “scientists,” envious of the success of economists in turning the study of wealth creation into a scientific discipline and a lucrative profession, are always searching for rules and laws to explain and discover certain regular and logical structures in human efforts involved in winning, preserving, and expanding power. Elections provide a wonderful opportunity for the members of this “profession” or “industry” to win fame, fortune, and, yes, power. Consultants dispense advice to candidates; pollsters “measure” public opinion; academics think-tank about the recent debate between the candidates; journalists cover the horse race; and pundits produce sound bites for 24/7 cable-television news. ------------------------------------------------------------------------...

Warner Bros is apparently doing a movie about outed CIA agent Valerie Plame and her husband, former Ambassador Joseph Wilson. Wilson was kind enough to attend a party marking the publication of my book, Sandstorm: Policy Failure in the Middle East a few months ago in Washington. When I signed my book for him, I wrote that "I hope Michael Douglas will play you and Sharon Stone will play your wife in the movie they'll probably make." Could happen. Well, it won't be Basic Instinct , but it will revolve around crimes and will certainly have a Bush and even a Dick.

Please check out my latest which explains which tries to compare the Modus Operandi of LBJ and GWB.

I know. You're just out of your league Dana Milbank fantasizes in The Washington Post that The White House Gets Neighborly in the Middle East and Steve Clemons is dreaming that Chess Pieces Move: Bush Admin Officials Plan to Meet with Iranian and Syrian Reps in Neighborhood "Block Party," and I just think that the administration is continuing to muddle through and buy time. As I pointed a few months ago: Indeed, when it comes to the Bush administration's policy towards Iran (and other global problems), much of what the pundits describe as "diplomacy" is actually nothing more than an attempt to "muddle through" one crisis after another; to come up with ad-hoc responses that reflect the existing political pressures at home and the balance of power abroad without advancing a consistent policy that articulates US interests by utilizing available power and selecting the necessary means to advance realistic goals. (read the rest) I think that part of a...

The Southern Avenger has produced There's Nothing to Win in Iraq which is one of the best vidoes on the war on Iraq -- and, yes, he was nice enough to mention some of my comments.

February 28, 2002 If Iraq, Iran, and North Korea Are the "Axis of Evil," Why Is Pakistan an Ally? October 19, 2003 The Real War On Terrorism Is In Pakistan, Not Iraq October 20, 2003The Real Threat of New Terrorism Is From Pakistan March 1, 2004Were We All Wrong About Pakistan, Too? (Los Anegeles Times)April 5, 2004Outsourcing the Hunt for Bin Laden May 8, 2002 Policy Analysis no. 436Pakistan in America's War against Terrorism: Strategic Ally or Unreliable Client?

Best Picture: Should and Will Win: The Departed : Everything you want in a great movie: exciting plot, unbelievable cast, entertaining and intelligent. It's not The Godfather , but it gets close. But hedging my bets: Babel could win. I liked the film which is supposed to be a critique of globalization, kind of "why can't we get along?" The "story" doesn't make a of sense, but some of the scenes like the North African mountains, Mexico, Tokyo are fantastic. Best Director: Should Win: Clint Eastwood for Letter from Iwo Jima. The movie is a masterpiece anti-war/war film in the same league of All Quiet on the Western Front and Grand Illusion. Eastwood as a director is not only talent, but also has a wonderful taste and style, and a lot of courage. But Martin Scorsese will win for The Departed . It's time for him to get one. He is certainly one of the best film directors. Best Actor: Forest Whitaker should and will get it for playing Idi Amin better t...

This is the way a U.S. official described to the Washington Post the announcement by the Brits that they were withdrawing more than 2,000 troops from Iraq just as the Bush Administration was increasing the number of U.S. troops by more than 20,000. The Post then deconstructed the White House's media strategy in A Ludicrous Attempt at Spin. How about spinning run amok. Well, perhaps the Post and other media should start analyzing their coverage since 2003 and explain why they have been buying into the White House's spin that the United States with more than 140,000 (as of now) in Iraq has been leading a “coalition” or an “alliance” or a “multinational force” the largest military contingency of non-Americans in that country is from Britain with 7,100. And, yes, let's us all thank Netherlands (15 troops), Slovenia (4 troops), and our great ally, Iceland (2 troops). So let's see: The U.S. military is overstretched and the fate of Western civilization will be deter...

The Right Web which is affiliated with the International Relations Center has just published my analysis Is Washington being sidelined on the Middel East? Among other things I suggest that: Now that the cost of the U.S. drive for power in the region is producing countervailing pressures at home and abroad, U.S. capacity and determination to advance the Arab-Israeli peace process has been weakened and has created a diplomatic vacuum in the Middle East that is gradually being filled by regional— and outside—players. The diplomatic role that Saudi Arabia has played in mediating the intra-Palestinian conflict parallels its discussions with Iran to stabilize Lebanon, its move to co-opt Syria into the Arab-Sunni camp, and its support for the Arab-Sunnis in Iraq. Similarly, U.S. failures in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine have created disincentives for Washington to engage Iran and Syria, a step that it fears could be perceived as a sign of weakness. But both Syria and Israel share common inter...

I've been arguing for a very long time that the neoconservative agenda pursued by the Bush Administration, including the war in Iraq and against the backdrop of the Israeli-Hizabollah war, are hurting and not advacing long term Israeli national interests. See for example, my two commentaries in The American Conseravtive , Bad For You Too? How the Iraq War disappointed Israel and Special Relationship: A one-sided U.S. policy toward Israel endangers both countries’ interests. Now comes Gregory Levey in Israel's surge of despair: Top Israeli officials admit last summer's war against Hezbollah was a failure -- and denounce President Bush's actions in the Middle East on Salon.com (via Dr. Strauss)and makes the same point. Interesting and depressing read.

I'm movie buff and a political junkie who is a fan of spy literature (fiction and non-fiction). So it's not surprising that went to see and enjoyed Breach in which Chris Cooper does a fantastic job playing the Robert Hanssen, the FBI agent who was convicted of selling secrets to the Soviet Union. To say that Hanssen was (is) a complex character is an understatement. A self-proclaimed patriot and anti-communist ideologue who betrayed his country spying for Moscow and a devout Catholic who engaged in kinky sex. Cooper captures all of that in a way that explains (to some extent) why he was able to deceive everyone and for so long. Director Billy Ray gets our attention without exploiting the material: no kinky sex or car chase scenes and very little violence. But yet everything hits you straight in the face. Bottom Line: Why did Hanssen do it? Certainly not for ideology. While money probably played a role, the main reason had to do with boredom and ego. The guy felt suffocated by ...

Tired of 24's Agent Jack Bauer and his band of computer geeks saving L.A. from terrorists and nuclear bombs? Then you should watch The State Within , on BBC America. It's a conspiracy thriller which actually takes place in the Capital of the Empire, with a lot of political corruption, violence, sex, and just good old decadence, which sounds a lot like Rome , which is a wonderful HBO show. At one point, the British Ambassador tells his staff that they need to finish their work "before Washington wakes up." Finally, my city gets the respect it deserves (Not!). In any case, the plot revolves around a cabal of political insiders, led by an arrogant Secretary of Defense who are exploiting a major terrorist act in order to advance their secret agenda, which includes the toppling of a Moslem dictator. I'm telling you, the guys who produce these television shows are paranoides! Only anti-American Brits can come up with crazy ideas like this. Indeed, Blaming America First ...