Global Paradigms

I've been arguing for a very long time that the neoconservative agenda pursued by the Bush Administration, including the war in Iraq and against the backdrop of the Israeli-Hizabollah war, are hurting and not advacing long term Israeli national interests. See for example, my two commentaries in The American Conseravtive , Bad For You Too? How the Iraq War disappointed Israel and Special Relationship: A one-sided U.S. policy toward Israel endangers both countries’ interests. Now comes Gregory Levey in Israel's surge of despair: Top Israeli officials admit last summer's war against Hezbollah was a failure -- and denounce President Bush's actions in the Middle East on Salon.com (via Dr. Strauss)and makes the same point. Interesting and depressing read.

I'm movie buff and a political junkie who is a fan of spy literature (fiction and non-fiction). So it's not surprising that went to see and enjoyed Breach in which Chris Cooper does a fantastic job playing the Robert Hanssen, the FBI agent who was convicted of selling secrets to the Soviet Union. To say that Hanssen was (is) a complex character is an understatement. A self-proclaimed patriot and anti-communist ideologue who betrayed his country spying for Moscow and a devout Catholic who engaged in kinky sex. Cooper captures all of that in a way that explains (to some extent) why he was able to deceive everyone and for so long. Director Billy Ray gets our attention without exploiting the material: no kinky sex or car chase scenes and very little violence. But yet everything hits you straight in the face. Bottom Line: Why did Hanssen do it? Certainly not for ideology. While money probably played a role, the main reason had to do with boredom and ego. The guy felt suffocated by ...

Tired of 24's Agent Jack Bauer and his band of computer geeks saving L.A. from terrorists and nuclear bombs? Then you should watch The State Within , on BBC America. It's a conspiracy thriller which actually takes place in the Capital of the Empire, with a lot of political corruption, violence, sex, and just good old decadence, which sounds a lot like Rome , which is a wonderful HBO show. At one point, the British Ambassador tells his staff that they need to finish their work "before Washington wakes up." Finally, my city gets the respect it deserves (Not!). In any case, the plot revolves around a cabal of political insiders, led by an arrogant Secretary of Defense who are exploiting a major terrorist act in order to advance their secret agenda, which includes the toppling of a Moslem dictator. I'm telling you, the guys who produce these television shows are paranoides! Only anti-American Brits can come up with crazy ideas like this. Indeed, Blaming America First ...

Just to let you know that four (!) of my articles on the U.S. and the Middle East were published in the January, February and March issues of Chronicles which is one of the most original magazines around which publishes leading paleo-conservative writers. Most of the magazine is not available online, so you can either purchase or subscribe to it. Also the Rockford Institute, which publishes Chronicles, has also published a book (which I may have mentioned before), Peace in the Promised Land: A Realist Scenario. It's an anthology and one the articles on the Israeli perspective was authored by your truly.

Will Congress extend Bush's trade authority? There's now stronger opposition among Democrats to renewing his TPA Business Times - 15 Feb 2007 By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT MOST political analysts have concluded that the election of the new Democratic-controlled US Congress in November 2006 has strengthened the power of the protectionist forces on Capitol Hill. With leading Democratic lawmakers advancing a populist economic agenda, the conventional wisdom in Washington has been that US President George W Bush would not be able to win enough support in Congress for renewing his trade promotion authority (TPA), which expires on June 30. And the loss of the TPA - first called 'fast track' - would mean Congress would be able to make changes in trade deals negotiated with other countries, a process that would make it less likely that Washington could conclude such agreements since US trade partners would be reluctant to negotiate with the American administration. But...

Business Times - 13 Feb 2007 Will WTO's China case take the heat off Bush? WTO action against China could help ease pressure to take a tougher approach against China By LEON HADAR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT WHEN US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson address-ed law-makers on the Bush Administration's global economic policies late last month, he couldn't fail to detect a growing scepticism over US policies towards China and rising demands in Congress for imposing punitive economic sanctions on Beijing in order to force officials there to change China's fixed exchange rates which that critics blame for soaring US trade deficits. During a hearing at the Senate Banking Committee on Jan 31, both Democratic and Republican senators criticised the Bush administration for not designating China guilty of currency manipulation in its latest report on the global foreign exchange market. Mr Paulson, who headed a delegation to China last December, responded by defending the Bush administr...

The new issue of The American Conservative (Feb. 26) has my analysis, "Persian Gulf of Tonkin Incident: Spoiling for another fight, the United States may try to provoke Iran." It's not available online. But you can read it by clicking on the images below:

Interesting piece in the NYT today on Noted Arab Citizens Call on Israel to Shed Jewish Identity. Here is the full text: By ISABEL KERSHNER JERUSALEM, Feb. 7 — A group of prominent Israeli Arabs has called on Israel to stop defining itself as a Jewish state and become a “consensual democracy for both Arabs and Jews,” prompting consternation and debate across the country. Their contention is part of “The Future Vision of the Palestinian Arabs in Israel,” a report published in December under the auspices of the Committee of Arab Mayors in Israel, which represents the country’s 1.3 million Arab citizens, about a fifth of the population. Some 40 well-known academics and activists took part. They call on the state to recognize Israeli Arab citizens as an indigenous group with collective rights, saying Israel inherently discriminates against non-Jewish citizens in its symbols of state, some core laws, and budget and land allocations. The authors propose a form of government, “consensual dem...

Highly recommended Norman Birnbaum's Israel on the Potomac: power under pressure. Among other things he makes the following points: After the six-day war of 1967 war, the Israel lobby was able to count on the support of the media, the marginalisation of Israel's critics, and overwhelming support in Congress. A politician who incurs the anger of the Israel lobby is taking a risk. One example of many is from the 2004 presidential campaign, when Howard Dean called for American "even-handedness" in the middle east - and then retreated, in haste and under fire. A problem here is that American Jewry has allowed itself to be represented by persons who in manner and personality resemble not the Nobel prizewinners, writers and thinkers of whom it has every reason to be proud, but an earlier generation's formidable gangsters, who are not above descending to vulgar ethnocentrism for the sake of defending Israel. This can be manifest in the tension between the claim of full ...

Read his thoughts on the plans to attack Iran . I liked this part: At this moment, people in Washington and in Jerusalem are thinking about a war in Iran. Not if it should be started, but when and how. If this is to be an American war, its consequences will be many times more grievous than the war in Iraq. Iran is a very hard nut. The Iranian people are united. They have a glorious national tradition, a highly developed national pride and a tough religious ideology. One can bomb their oil facilities, but it is a big country, not dependent on a sophisticated infrastructure, and it cannot be subdued by bombing alone. There will be no alternative to a military attack on the ground. Bush is already preparing the war. This week he instructed his soldiers in Iraq to hunt down and kill all "Iranian agents" there. That is reminiscent of the infamous "Kommissarbefehl" of June 6, 1941, on the eve of the German invasion of the Soviet Union, in which Adolf Hitler ordered the su...

Who is therefore my kind of guy. Read his GREAT piece in the New York Review of Books. Here is one section which reads as though it was authored by someone working in a libertarian think tank: The noninterventionist alternative to the policies followed in the United States since the 1950s is to minimize interference in other societies and accept the existence of an international system of plural and legitimate powers and interests. One would think the idea that nations are responsible for themselves, and that American military interference in their affairs is more likely to turn small problems into big ones than to solve them, would appeal to an American public that believes in individual responsibility and the autonomy of markets, considers itself hostile to political ideology (largely unaware of its own), and professes to be governed by constitutional order, pragmatism, and compromise. A noninterventionist policy would shun ideology and emphasize pragmatic and empirical judgment of ...

I was a guest today on the To The Point radio show hosted by Warren Olney. You can listen (I hope) to program "The Arabs, the Jews and American History" here.

Check out my: Expanding the War to Iran: Another “Urban Legend?” Leon Hadar | January 26, 2007 IRC Right Web Rejecting the notion that the United States was planning to attack Iran and Syria, White House Spokesman Tony Snow called it a myth or an “urban legend.” “I want to address [a] kind of a rumor, an urban legend that's going around,” Snow told reporters at a White House briefing two days after President George W. Bush vowed to go after Iranian terrorist networks involved in Iraq violence. “What the president talked about in his speech on Iraq strategy is defending American forces within Iraq,” Snow insisted. In his January 11 televised speech on U.S. policy in Iraq, Bush had accused Tehran and Damascus of fueling the insurgency in Iraq and expressed disagreement with proposals, including from the Iraq Study Group (ISG), to negotiate with both countries as part of an effort to reach peace and stability in Iraq. He said: “We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We'll i...

In the New York Times today. The writer, Michael Oren seems to be a bit confused. I don't recall that Syria was placed on the "axis of evil." But never mind.. And of course he is actually opposed to Israel-Syria talks but doesn't say so. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- January 24, 2007 Op-Ed Contributor What if Israel and Syria Find Common Ground? By MICHAEL B. OREN ISRAEL’S newspapers are rife with reports of a peace agreement secretly forged between Israeli and Syrian negotiators. Though both the Syrian and Israeli governments have denied any involvement in the talks, past experience shows that such disavowals are often the first indication of truth behind the rumors. Certainly, there is nothing new about the details of the purported plan, which involves a staged Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, occupied since 1967, and the full normalization of relations between Damascus and Jerusalem. Nor is there a preced...

(original lyrics by Natalie Cole): Gimme some time [ like six months or more ], Baby I know you're thinking that I'm playing [ neocon games;politics ] But I'm saying that I wouldn't hurt you for the world, oh no [ did I ever lie?] I'm not so blind, Baby [ I see we're like winning in Iraq ] I need your lovin' and you know it (yes, I do, well) 'cause I'll show it, well I don't wanna be hurt you [ and I'll love you in the morning ] If you want me to I'll keep it a secret [ we're good in that ] But please let me get through your door [ or I'll use the Patriot Act ] 'Cause I guarantee that once we get started You'll soon be begging for more [ troops ] We want the whole world to know that we are one [ spreading freedom everywhere and stuff ] So why don't you gimme some time, Baby [ please...] Let's take advantage not for granted for the good things [ mess in Iraq ] (We got for the good thangs) I don't want to be hurt...

I've learned from the Israeli press that my old friend, Alon Liel (seen above), a former Israeli diplomat, has been conducting secret negotiations with Syrian representatives: Last update - 21:57 18/01/2007 Alon Liel: Israel rejected Syrian bid for wartime talks By Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondent and The Associated Press Syria is serious about resuming peace talks with Israel and even proposed holding secret high-level talks during the war in Lebanon last summer, which Israel rejected, retired diplomat Alon Liel said Thursday. Israel's leaders quickly distanced themselves from reports leaked by Haaretz earlier this week that former Foreign Ministry director general Liel held unofficial talks with a Syrian. Liel, going public for the first time Thursday, said he briefed government officials every step of the way. He said he believed his counterpart, Syrian-American businessman Ibrahim Suleiman, also had channels to the Syrian government. "Our testimony is that it is very...

I liked The Children of Men about a fascist world of the future in which all women are infertile and and in which there is a lot of violence as groups fight against the government and against each other. The movie is based on a book by P.D. James which was published in the 1990's. For James who is politically conservative and is opposed to abortion that the human sperm count went to zero is a metaphor for the collapse of the family structure, loss of faith and the dying western civilization. But in the movie the end of the human race is leading to violence, terrorism and wars, with the world looking like a huge Baghdad/Gaza Strip. So... here is my problem: According to the popular Youth Bulge theory "one of the strongest indicators of whether a country will be prone to military conflict, general destabilization or revolt, is its demographics. More specifically, if it has a large proportion of generally poor and dissatisifed, young men, the likelihood increases by a landsli...

(Stimulate a hormonal surge that drives high concentrations of certain nutrients, deep into the muscle cell. Biotest Surge is designed to switch on anabolism and halt catabolism when its absolutely most important, post workout. Speed up your bodys ability. Check here for info. It says that "this product was discontinued." We wish...) On a serious note. I'll be posting something longer on the topic in the next day or two. But in a way my earlier post on Iran-Israel-U.S. ties, including my Osirak Redux? tie neatly into what Bush is proposing. If you read his comments on Iran and Syria, it's becoming clear that the administration is preparing to escalate the war and expand it to Iran and Syria. The Cambodia analogy was raising by many pundits today, including by Senator Hagel during Condi's testimony on Capitol Hill : Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., a twice-wounded Vietnam veteran, called Bush's speech "the most dangerous foreign policy blunder since Vietnam - ...

Please read my new analysis in The American Conservative on how An Israeli strike on Iran would pin the U.S. down in Iraq and resuscitate the neocons.

Check-out my Brace Yourself for 2007.